This is going to be an extremely close event as the top teams are within only a few points of each other and one mistake could cost a team a spot on the podium and one of the two 2 spots on the Worlds team. With Russia only sending two pairs to Worlds and leaving two of their top teams home, there is a chance that our pairs could do well enough to earn a 3rd slot next year so which two teams go will be very important.
Yankowskas and Coughlin have had a great season so far, winning one Grand Prix medal and setting some of the top scores in the international field. They have the 8th best short program, 10th best free skate and 8th best overall score this season. They have the top international scores in this field and they beat out both Denney/Barrett and Evora/Ladwig in direct competiton this season. I believe this gives them an edge and will land them on top of the podium for the first time.
Denney and Barrett are the defending champions. I wasn't fond of this team in the past, but they have really grown a lot this season and Caydee has tons of energy and personality on the ice. They used to be known for their consistency but that seems to have been a problem for them this season, especially in the free skate. They have the 8th best short program score and 9th best total score for the season. If they can correct their jump problems they could regain their title but they'll also have to match artistically with the other teams in the field and they lack some of the maturity the other top teams have, mostly because their partnership is only in its third season.
Evora and Ladwig have a great connection on the ice and have some of the best lifts in the world. They had good placements at the Olympics and Worlds and won their first Grand Prix medal this season. Their scores improved between their two events but only in their Free Skate, which is ranked 8th best for the season. Their short program has been receiving low scores and has kept them from truly competing for the top spots at their events. If they can find a way to up their short program scores they will be solidly in contention for the title here.
Castelli and Shnapir are a younger team that has had a solid Grand Prix season. They need to work on their consistency as mistakes at both their events cost them placements. They do have some great elements and have been training a throw triple axel which very few teams can execute and has a high base value. They are definitely in the mix for the race for the podium and can capitalize if one of the top teams makes mistakes.
Marley and Brubaker are a new team this season and have put up some impressive scores internationally. Their short program seems to be their strength at this point as they are executing a few easier elements in their free skate such as a double throw that may keep them off the podium. If they do two throw triples here, they could easily find themselves with a medal. This is definitely a team to watch.
A few other teams to watch are Vise/Baldwin, Katz/Lynch and Aaron/Cohen.
You can see an analysis of all the best and worst scores of the season here: http://backstagebarbie.blogspot.com/2011/01/us-nationals-preview-senior-pairs-best.html
My podium predictions:
Gold: Yankowskas/Coughlin
Silver: Denney/Barrett
Bronze: Evora/Ladwig
Pewter: Castelli/Shnapir
My USFSA Fantasy Picks:
A) Yankowskas/Coughlin
B) Marley/Brubaker
C) Aaron/Cohen
Denney/Barrett: They finished 13th at the Olympics and 7th at Worlds with personal best scores across the board. They finished 5th place at NHK Trophy and 4th at Skate America. They are the 2009 National silver medalists and the reigning National Champions.
Evora/Ladwig: They placed 10th at the Olympics with personal best scores in the short and free programs and 9th at the World Championships. They finished 5th at Cup of China and and bronze at Cup of Russia. They are the 2007 and 2008 National pewter medalists. They are the reigning National silver medalists.
Yankowskas/Coughlin: They placed 4th at the Four Continents Championships with personal best scores in the short and free skate. They finished 4th at NHK Trophy and won bronze at Cup of China. They finished 6th at nationals last season.
Vise/Baldwin: They finished 8th at nationals last season.
Castelli/Shnapir: Castelli and Shnapir placed 10th at Four Continents. They are the 2009 World Junior Bronze medalists. They finished 4th at Skate Canada with personal best scores across the board and 6th at Skate America with a personal best free skate. They are the 2009 National Junior bronze medalists. They finished 10th at nationals last season.
Davis/Leftheris: This is their first season together.
Marley/Brubaker: This is their first season together. Marley is also competing in junior ladies.
Smith/Bartholomay: They qualified with a 1st place finish at Eastern sectionals. They are the reigning National Junior bronze medalists.
Katz/Lynch: They qualified with a 2nd place finish at Eastern sectionals. They finished 6th at nationals in 2009.
Aaron/Cohen: They qualified with a 1st place finish at Midwestern sectionals. They finished 9th at nationals last season.
Bereswill/Young: They qualified with a 2nd place finish at Midwestern sectionals. This is their first season together.
Moore/Gaumond: They qualified with a 3rd place finish at Midwestern sectionals. They finished 15th at nationals last season.
Scimeca/Dimitrov: They qualified with a 3rd place finish at Eastern sectionals.
Donlan/Speroff: They qualified with a 4th place finish at Eastern sectionals. They finished 8th at nationals at the junior level last year.
Simpson/Miller and Zhang/Toth had qualified but had to withdraw due to injury.
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