This should be a very competitive field with several of the JGP Final contestants here as well as medal winners from the JGP. Notably absent is JGP Final Champion, Richard Dornbush, who skated well enough at U.S. Nationals to qualify for the World team. Joshua Farris also qualified for the JGPF but broke his leg at nationals and won't be competing here.
I see eight competitors really fighting for the podium title. Artur Dmitriev just missed qualifying for the JGPF. He then went on to beat out his compatriots at the Russian Junior Nationals. He'll have to earn a spot in the short program by competing at the qualifying round, while many of the other competitors won't and the extra day of competition could affect his final score.
Andrei Rogozine had good scores at his two JGP assignments and qualified for the Final in first position. He had problems at the Final and posted his lowest score of the season. He had a disastrous performance at nationals, scoring over 30 points below his season's best. If this downward trend continues, he could have a problem medaling in this competitive field.
Gordei Gorshkov's scores are almost a virtual tie with Dmitriev's and both were very consistent over the season. He had the lowest score at the JGPF, however, and will be looking to rebound with a better score here.
Han Yan of China won the silver medal at the JGPF and has posted the highest junior international score of this field. His JGPF score gives him a 5 point advantage, but he won't be able to make any mistakes if he wants the Junior World title.
Keegan Messing has put up good scores all season, but his international scores were on a downward trend. He had a solid nationals performance as a senior. If he can put out programs like he did there he should have a good shot at a medal. He is not the most artistic skater and his strength is really in his jumping abilities which could be a factor. If all the skaters go clean, he doesn't have the artistic points to keep him on pace with everyone else. He finished 4th at this competition last season and is the highest placed returning competitor.
Max Aaron's scores have been trending upward all season, with minor improvements between each competition. He won the junior title at nationals but his score was no where near that of Messing, even taking into account the higher points possible in a senior program. He went for the triple axel in both of his programs at nationals but struggled. If he lands them, this could give him a big boost technically, but could put him out of contention if the rest of the field is clean.
Zhan Bush's scores have also been slightly trending upward over the season. His scores though are at the lower end of the top skaters. He kept pace with the Russians at their nationals and it will be interesting to see if the international judges do the same.
My podium predictions:
Gold: Han Yan
Silver: Artur Dmitriev
Bronze: Keegan Messing
The competitors (note: D indicates a direct entry into the short program):
Slavik Hayrapetyan, ARM: He finished 17th at JGP Czech Republic. He placed 34th at World Juniors last season.
Brendan Kerry, AUS: He finished 14th and 20th at his two JGP assignments this season. He placed 18th at Four Continents with personal best scores across the board.
Vitali Luchanok, BLR:
Jorik Hendrickx, BEL (D): He placed 16th at Europeans with a personal best free skate and total score. He finished 7th and 6th at his two JGP assignments this season. He finished 15th at World Juniors last season.
Manol Atanassov, BUL: He finished 40th at World Juniors last season.
Liam Firus, CAN: He finished 5th at the JGP Brasov Cup and won bronze at J. Curry Memorial.
Andrei Rogozine, CAN (D): He won bronze at the Junior Grand Prix Final after winning gold at both JGP Courchevel and SBC Cup. He placed 6th at the World Junior Championships last season.
Jiaxing Liu, CHN (D): He finished 10th at JGP Poland and 5th at JGP Czech Republic. He placed 14th at World Juniors last season.
Han Yan, CHN (D):Yan won JGP Cup of Austria and Czech Skate to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where he won silver.
Jordan Ju, TPE: He finished 13th at both his Junior Grand Prix assignments this season. He placed 17th at Four Continents with personal best scores across the board.
Petr Coufal, CZE: He finished 8th at JGP Austria and 7th at JGP Czech Republic. He placed 21st at World Juniors last season.
Keiran Araza, DEN: He finished 19th at JGP Austria and 24th at JGP Germany.
Viktor Romanenkov, EST: He finished 36th at the World Championships last season. He finished 8th and 11th at his two JGP assignments this season. He placed 26th at World Juniors last season.
Bela Papp, FIN: He finished 14th at JGP Romania and 16th at JGP Germany. He placed 24th at World Juniors last season.
Romain Ponsart, FRA (D): He finished 5th at both his JGP assignments this season.
Armen Agaian, GEO:
Denis Wieczorek, GER (D): He placed 20th at Europeans with personal best scores across the board. He finished 5th and 15th at his two JGP assignments this season.
Harry Mattick, GBR: He finished 11th at JGP France and 9th at JGP Great Britain. He placed 39th at World Juniors last season.
Harry Hau Yin Lee, HKG: He finished 22nd at JGP Japan. He placed 43rd at World Juniors last season.
Saverio Giacomelli, ITA: He finished 27th at World Juniors last season.
Ryuichi Kihara, JPN: He finished 10th at JGP Austria and won bronze at JGP Germany.
Kento Nakamura, JPN (D): He finished 9th at JGP Japan and 8th at JGP Czech Republic.
Keiji Tanaka, JPN: He finished 10th at JGP Great Britain.
Abzal Rakimgaliev, KAZ (D): He finished 26th at the Olympics and 21st at Worlds last season.He placed 13th at Four Continents with a personal best free skate and total score. He won bronze at his first JGP assignment this season and placed 8th at his second assignment. He placed 11th at World Juniors last year.
Girts Jekabsons, LAT: He placed 46th at the World Championships last season. He finished 19th at JGP Czech Republic. He placed 38th at World Juniors last season.
Saulius Ambrulevicius, LTU: He finished 38th at the World Championships with a personal best short program last season. He finished 13th and 16th at his two JGP assignments this season. He placed 32nd at World Juniors last season.
Ryan Zhi Jwen Yee, MAS: He finished 16th at JGP France and 21st at JGP Japan.
Boyito Mulder, NED: He finished 45th at the World Junior Championships last season.
Kamil Bialas, POL (D): He finished 18th at JGP Austria and 11th at JGP Czech Republic.
Dong-Won Lee, KOR: He finished 4th at JGP Romania and 11th at JGP Japan.
Vlad Ionescu, ROU: He finished 18th at JGP Romania and 12th at JGP Great Britain.
Zhan Bush, RUS (D): He won bronze at JGP Cup of Austria and silver at J. Curry Memorial to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where he finished 7th.
Artur Dmitriev, RUS: He finished 4th at JGP Germany and won silver at JGP Czech Republic. He placed 7th at World Juniors last season.
Gordei Gorshkov, RUS (D): Gorshkov finished 4th at JGP SBC Cup and won silver at Pokal der Blauen to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where he finished 8th.
Francesc Palau, ESP (D): He finished 16th at JGP Great Britain.
Alexander Majorov, SWE (D): He finished 5th at JGP Japan and won bronze at JGP Czech Republic. He placed 8th at World Juniors last season.
Ondrej Spiegel, SWE: He finished 9th at JGP Romania and 10th at JGP Great Britain.
Tomi Pulkkinen, SUI: He finished 15th at JGP Japan and 14th at JGP Germany.
Suchet Kongchim, THA: He finished 17th at JGP France.
Engin Ali Artan, TUR: He finished 16th at JGP Romania and 23th at JGP Germany.
Stanislav Pertsov, UKR: He finished 13th at JGP Austria and 6th at JGP Czech Republic. He placed 29th at World Juniors last season.
Max Aaron, USA (D): Aaron won bronze at JGP Courcheval and silver at SBC Cup to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final, where he finished 4th.
Jason Brown, USA (D): He won silver at JGP Courcheval and finished 6th in Japan.
Keegan Messing, USA (D): He won gold at JGP Brasov Cup and placed 4th at Czech Skate to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where he placed 5th. Messing finished 4th at the World Junior Championships last season.
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