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Monday, April 18, 2011

World Championships: Ladies Preview

Miki Ando has been a jump machine all season and her long program has been spot on.  She struggled throughout the beginning of the season with her short program and changed her program mid-way through the season.  Her short program was so bad at the Grand Prix Final that she was not able to move up one spot in the rankings despite winning the free skate.  She fixed that problem at the Four Continents Championships and skated lights out to break 200 for the first time this season.  She is rumored to be planning to take next season off and likely will want to go out with a World title under her belt.  She has the best short program, free skate and total scores of the season. 

Mao Asada struggled through the beginning of the season and failed to qualify for the Grand Prix Final or even win a medal on the Grand Prix Circuit.  She changed coaches in the off-season and has been reworking her jumping technique and her legs just didn't seem to be underneath her.  She was able to rebound in time for the Japanese Championships and earn a spot on the Worlds team, but she lost her national title to Miki Ando.  She was able to stay on her feet and win the silver medal at Four Continents but a lot of her trademark elements are missing.  She only had one triple axel in her free skate and her trademark spiral is placed in a choreographically interesting spot in her program but loses a lot of its dramatic power.  She is the reigning World Champion but I think it will be an uphill battle to reclaim her title.  She has the 3rd best short program, 2nd best free skate and 2nd best total score of the season.

Alissa Czisny has had the season of her career.  After winning her first national title in 2009, she dropped to 10th place last season and missed her shot at the Olympics.  Always known for her spins and her artistry, she struggled with her jumps and often seemed to give up on herself on the ice.  She changed coaches in the offseason and started her season with a gold medal win at Skate Canada.  She won the gold medal at the Grand Prix Final and reclaimed her national title.  She didn't have her best outing at Four Continents and many were announcing the return of "Old Alissa".  I disagreed and noted that despite some falls and mistakes, she continued to fight for everything in her program.  I think it was a learning experience for her and something she needed to get out of her system.  The one thing most likely to keep her off the podium is her lack of a triple-triple in either of her programs.  She has the 2nd best short program, 6th best free skate and 4th best total score of the season.

Rachael Flatt has also had an up and down season, qualifying for her first Grand Prix Final but finishing a disappointing 6th after battling injuries that left her unable to land her normally consistent jumps.  She went back to the drawing board and showed up at nationals with a new short program that absolutely suits her personality and answers many critics questions about her artistry.  She went on to receive personal best short program scores for this program at Four Continents.  She also seems to be healthy and is training very technically demanding triple-triple combinations for her programs.  She'll be attending college in the fall and the future of her skating career is uncertain as she'll have a demanding course schedule and will be looking for a new coach and training facility.  She'll likely be looking to make the most of this opportunity.  She has the 5th best short program, 4th best free skate and 5th best total score of the season.

Carolina Kostner has had a comeback season, medaling at both of her Grand Prix assignments and the Grand Prix Final.  She did lose her European title, but took the silver medal.  She seems to be losing steam as the season progresses and at an event last week, scored 10 points below her seasons best.  She was attempting jumps that have not been in her program all season, but her programs were riddled with jump errors.  Her programs have been criticized all season for their technical content and with this field it likely won't be enough to land on the podium.  She has the 6th best short program, 7th best free skate and 6th best total score of the season.

Kanako Murakami has made a splash in her senior debut winning medals at every event she has entered this season, including the Grand Prix Final.  She was left off the Four Continents team in favor of Akiko Suzuki, but instead entered the Asian Winter Games where her score was on par with her marks at the Grand Prix Final.  She has been getting better all season and her programs have a ton of personality and her jumps are spot on and full of technical content.  A medal here would be a big achievement for this youngster, but she could easily make the final group.  She has the 7th best short program, 5th best free skate and 7th best total score of the season.

Kiira Korpi has two stunningly beautiful programs and has really come into her own this season.  She has been consistent with her scores throughout the season and her elements seem to meld seamlessly into her choreography.  While I don't think she'll match Laura Lepisto's bronze medal finish from last season, Korpi should have no problem with a top 10 finish.  She has the 4th best short program score and 10th best total score of the season.

Yuna Kim is the reigning Olympic Champion and holds the record for the highest scores under the IJS system.  She is simply magical to watch on the ice.  She's gone through a lot of changes this year, changing coaches and training locations.  After Worlds was postponed, Kim returned to Korea to focus on the Olympic bid and wasn't training for a week.  When the Moscow location was announced, she asked Peter Oppegard to travel to Korea to train her for Worlds while she continued to work on the bid.  A few official practice videos have been put out but these have largely been the same sections of choreography repeated over and over and without jumps.  She is a fierce competitor and will come in looking for the title but given her divided focus and having not been in front of the judges this season, I think she'll have trouble walking away with the title.  That being said, I would never count Yu-Na out of the race.

Ksenia Makarova (8th best short program), Alena Leonova, and Valentina Marchei all have good shots at being in the final two groups.

Absent from this event are Mirai Nagasu (3rd best total score and Four Continents bronze medalist) of the United States and Akiko Suzuki (8th best total score) of Japan.  Both countries have incredibly deep fields and were outscored at their nationals events.  Sarah Meier (9th best total score and European Champion) of Switzerland retired after Europeans and will also not be attending.

My podium predictions: 
Gold: Miki Ando
Silver: Yuna Kim
Bronze: Mao Asada

My USFSA Fantasy Team:
A) Miki Ando
B) Cynthia Phaneuf
C) Juulia Turkkila

The competitors (a D indicates a direct entry into the short program):

Cheltzie Lee, AUS (D): She finished 20th at the Olympics.  She finished 10th at Four Continents last season.  She placed 17th at Worlds last season.

Belinda Schonberger, AUT: She placed 11th in the preliminary round at Europeans.  She finished 18th and 19th at her two JGP assignments this season.

Ira Vannut, BEL: She finished 7th at Europeans with personal best scores across the board and was 10th at World Juniors.  She finished 4th at JGP Austria and won bronze at JGP Germany.

Hristina Vassileva, BUL: She placed 23rd at Europeans with personal best scores across the board.

Amelie Lacoste, CAN: Lacoste placed 9th at Four Continents.  She won bronze at Skate Canada with personal best scores across the board and placed 5th at Skate America.

Cynthia Phaneuf, CAN (D): Phaneuf finished 12th at the Olympics. She placed 6th at Four Continents.  She is the 2004 Four Continents silver medalist.  She finished 4th at Skate Canada and Trophee Eric Bompard.  She was 5th at Worlds last season.

Bingwa Geng, CHN (D): She placed 13th at Four Continents.  She finished 5th at Cup of China with personal best scores across the board.

Melinda Wang, TPE: Wang finished 18th at Four Continents.

Karina Johnson, DEN: She placed 17th at Europeans with personal best scores across the board.  She finished 35th at Worlds last season.

Elena Glebova, EST: She finished 10th at Cup of Russia.  Glebova finished 21st at Worlds last season.

Kiira Korpi, FIN (D): Korpi finished 11th at the Olympics with a personal best free skate.  She is the reigning European bronze medalist.  She is the 2007 European bronze medalist.  She finished 4th at NHK Trophy and won gold at Trophee Eric Bompard with a personal best total score.  She was 19th at Worlds last season.

Juulia Turkkila, FIN: She placed 15th at Europeans with personal best scores across the board and 16th at World Juniors.  She finished 10th at her JGP assignment this season.

Mae Berenice Meite, FRA: She finished 9th at Europeans with a personal best short program and total score.  She finished 8th at her Grand Prix debut at Skate America and 9th at Trophee Eric Bompard with a personal best free skate and total score.

Elene Gedevanishvili, GEO (D): She placed 14th at the Olympics.  She finished 8th at Europeans.  She placed 6th at NHK Trophy and 7th at Skate America. She was 8th at Worlds last season.

Sarah Hecken, GER (D): Hecken finished 18th at the Olympics.  She placed 11th at Europeans.  She finished 10th at Trophee Eric Bompard.  She finished 12th at Worlds last season.

Jenna McCorkell, GBR (D): She placed 29th at the Olympics.  She finished 14th at Europeans.  She finished 11th at NHK Trophy and 10th at Skate America.  She is married to Kevin van der Perren of Belgium.  She finished 14th at Worlds last season. 

Georgia Glastris, GRE: She placed 17th in the preliminary round at Europeans.  She finished 21st and 18th at her two JGP assignments this season.  She finished 44th at Worlds last season. 

Tiffany Packard Yu, HKG: She finished 25th at Four Continents.

Viktoria Pavuk, HUN (D): She finished 19th at Europeans.

Clara Peters, IRL: She placed 27th at Europeans.  She finished 47th at Worlds last season.

Carolina Kostner, ITA (D): She finished 16th at the Olympics.  She is the reigning European Silver Medalist.  She has one silver and one bronze medal at worlds and 2 additional gold, 1 silver and 1 bronze medal at Europeans.  She won gold at NHK Trophy and bronze at Skate America to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where she won silver.  She was 6th at Worlds last season. 

Roberta Rodeghiero, ITA: Her last international competition was in 2008 when she placed 7th at JGP Madrid.

Miki Ando, JPN (D): Ando placed 5th at the Olympics. She is the reigning Four Continents Champion.  She is the 2004 World Junior Champion and 2007 World Champion.  She is the only lady to ever land a quadruple jump in competition.  She won Cup of China and Cup of Russia to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where she placed 5th.  She was 4th at Worlds last season.

Mao Asada, JPN (D): Asada won silver at the Olympics and is the reigning World Champion.  She won silver at Four Continents.  She is the 2007 World silver medalist and 2008 World Champion.  She is the 2008 Four Continents Champion and 2009 bronze medalist.  She won the World Junior title in 2005 and took silver in 2006.  She finished 8th at NHK Trophy and 5th at Trophee Eric Bompard.

Kanako Murakami, JPN (D): She won bronze at NHK Trophy with personal best scores across the board and gold at Skate America with a personal best free skate and total score to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where she won bronze.   

Fleur Maxwell, LUX: She placed 22nd at Europeans.  She finished 33rd at Worlds last season.

Mary Ro Reyes, MEX: She finished 29th at Four Continents.  She placed 22nd at JGP Germany.

Mericien Venzon, PHI: She finished 22nd at Four Continents.  She placed 23rd at JGP Japan.

Yuna Kim, KOR (D):  She is the reigning Olympic Gold Medalist and World Silver Medalist.  She is the 2009 World Champion and 2007 and 2008 World Bronze Medalist.  She is the 2009 Four Continents Champion.  She is the 2006 World Junior Champion and 2005 World Junior Silver Medalist.

Min-Jeong Kwak, KOR: Kwak placed 13th in the Olympics.  She placed 8th at Four Continents.  She finished 9th at Cup of China and 11th at Skate America. She was 22nd at Worlds last season.  

Sabina Mariuta, ROU: She placed 18th in the preliminary round at Europeans.  She finished 27th and 21st at her two JGP assignments this season.

Alena Leonova, RUS (D): Leonova placed 9th at the Olympics.  She was 5th at the European Championships.  She won bronze at Cup of China and finished 9th at Cup of Russia.  She finished 13th at Worlds last season.

Ksenia Makarova, RUS (D): Makarova placed 10th at the Olympics.  She placed 4th at Europeans.  She won silver at her Grand Prix Debut in Canada and finished 7th at Cup of Russia.  She was 8th at Worlds last season.

Marina Seeh, SRB: She placed 15th in the preliminary round at Europeans.  She finished 46th at Worlds last season.

Dasa Grm, SLO: Grm placed 20th at Europeans with personal best scores across the board.

Lejeanne Marais, RSA: She finished 15th at Four Continents.

Sonia Lafuente, ESP: She placed 22nd at the Olympics.  She finished 12th at Europeans.  She finished 10th at her Grand Prix debut at Skate Canada with a personal best free skate and 7th at Trophee Eric Bompard with a personal best free skate and total score.  She was 20th at Worlds last season.

Joshi Helgesson, SWE: She finished 7th at Cup of China with personal best free and total scores and 4th at Skate American with personal best free and total scores.

Viktoria Helgesson, SWE (D): She finished 6th at Europeans.  She placed 9th in her Grand Prix debut at the NHK Trophy and 6th at Skate America.  She placed 10th at the World Championships last season.

Bettina Heim, SUI:  She finished 32nd at Worlds last season.

Taryn Jurgensen, THA: She finished 27th at Four Continents.  She finished 20th at JGP France.

Birce Atabey, TUR (D): She finished 28th at Europeans.  She placed 22nd and 24th at her two JGP assignments this season.

Irina Movchan, UKR (D): She placed 26th at Europeans.  She finished 40th at the World Championships last season.

Alissa Czisny, USA (D): She placed 5th at Four Continents.  Czisny won Skate Canada with personal best free and total scores and won bronze at Trophee Eric Bompard to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where she won gold with personal best scores across the board.

Rachael Flatt, USA (D): Flatt placed 7th at the Olympics.  She finished 4th at Four Continents.  She is the 2008 World Junior Champion.  She won silver at NHK Trophy and Skate America to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where she finished 6th.  She was 9th at Worlds last season.

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