Vincent Zhou enters this event as the favorite after winning both of his qualifying events this season by comfortable margins. At just 11 years old, he already has one national championship to his name, winning the intermediate level last season. He has double axels and lots of triple jumps and while not everything is the prettiest, he is fairly consistent and sticks his landings. He has the top two scores of the season by a comfortable margin and should win this event solidly.
Here's the video of his winning performance at Junior Nationals last season.
Kevin Shum finished 2nd behind Zhou at both of his events last season and had consistent scoring between the two events. He lost points when he completed an illegal triple+triple combination in his short program at Sectionals but that technical prowess could give him an edge if he uses it correctly. He is also one of two skaters that made it to nationals at the novice level last season and that experience should allow him to better handle the pressure of skating in a larger event with bigger crowds.
The rest of the skaters are fairly evenly matched, and I think the whole event will be close, especially the race for the podium. Of the rest of the field, Tony Lu had the highest scores and was the most consistent between events so I give him a slight edge.
My podium predictions:
Gold: Vincent Zhou
Silver: Kevin Shum
Bronze: Tony Lu
Pewter: Spencer Howe
Bios of the competitors:
Tony Lu: He is 12 years old and competes on behalf of the Skating Club of Wilmington. He is the 2010 Juvenile Boys Silver Medalist and finished 18th in Juvenile Boys in 2009. He won gold at South Atlantic Regionals and Eastern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals. He has the 7th best short program, 3rd best free skate and 4th best total score.
Jimmy Ma: He placed 14th in Intermediate Men in 2010. He won silver at North Atlantic Regionals and Eastern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals. He has the 2nd best short program, 8th best free skate and 5th best total score.
Oleksiy Melnyk: He is 14 years old and competes on behalf of the Washington Figure Skating Club. He is the 2011 Intermediate Men's Silver Medalist and finished 7th in Juvenile Boys in 2009. He won silver at South Atlantic Regionals and the pewter medal at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals. He has the 9th best short program and 10th best total score.
James Schetelich: He is 15 years old and represents the Skating Club of New York. He placed 18th in Intermediate Men in 2010 and is the 2009 Juvenile Boys pewter medalist. He won gold at North Atlantic Regionals and the bronze medal at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals. He has the 3rd best short program and 6th best free skate and total scores.
Chase Belmontes: He represents the Broadmoor Skating Club. He placed 20th in Intermediate Men in 2010. He won gold at Southwestern Regionals and silver at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals. He has the 10th best short program, 7th best free skate and 8th best total score.
Brian Krentz: He represents the Skokie Valley Skating Club. He placed 5th in Intermediate Pairs in 2011. He won gold Upper Great Lakes Regionals and Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals. He has the 4th best free skate and 7th best total score.
Kyle Shropshire: He represents the Wagon Wheel Skating Club. He placed 13th in Intermediate Men in 2010. He won the bronze medal at Upper Great Lakes Regionals and pewter medal at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals. He has the 9th best free skate and 10th best total score.
Nicholas Vrdoljak: He is 15 years old and competes for Northern Ice Skating Club. He is the 2009 Juvenile Boys Champion and placed 5th in Intermediate Men in 2010 and 14th in Juvenile Boys in 2008. He won the silver medal at Upper Great Lakes Sectionals and bronze at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals. He has the 6th best short program and 9th best total score.
Spencer Howe: He is 15 years old and represents the Los Angeles Figure Skating Club. He is the 2009 Juvenile Boys silver medalist, placed 16th in Intermediate Men in 2010 and 6th in Novice Men in 2011. He won bronze at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals. He has the 5th best short program and free skate and 3rd best total score.
Wilbur Ji: He represents the Skating Club of San Francisco. He won bronze at Central Pacific Regionals and the pewter medal at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for Nationals.
Kevin Shum: He represents the St. Moritz Ice Skating Club. He is the 2008 Juvenile Boys Champion, placed 7th in Intermediate Men in 2009, 6th in Intermediate Men in 2010 and 9th in Novice Men in 2011. He won silver at Central Pacific Regionals and Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals. He has the 4th best short program and 2nd best free skate and total score.
Vincent Zhou: He is 11 years old and represents the Peninsula Skating Club. He placed 5th in Juvenile Boys in 2010 and is the reigning Intermediate Men's Champion. He won gold at Central Pacific Regionals and Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals. He has the best short program, free skate and total score.
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