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Saturday, December 31, 2011

U.S. Nationals Novice Dance Preview

This event should be extremely close as there are several teams that will be jostling for places on the podium.  They will also be competing one of the same pattern dances that was performed at sectionals, but also a new pattern dance, which could dramatically change the scoring.


While Miller and MacMillan enter with the highest total score from sectionals, their entire advantage came from the Killian portion, which will not be competed at nationals.  While this is a new team, they both have experience competing and winning at the national level.


Moore and Klaber set the highest free dance score from sectionals en route to their gold medal finish.  This is their 5th consecutive nationals together and their second season as novices and that experience could really pay off as so many of these teams are new partnerships and new to the novice level.


Rosinksi and Jaffe finished just a point behind Moore and Klaber at Sectionals and set the highest Argentine Tango score, a dance which will be competed at nationals.  They also train alongside Moore and Klaber everyday, so I expect that the competitive environment at home could push these two teams to the top.  


Lewis and Bye are a very young team that are competing in their first novice season.  They have a great shot at winning their first national medal here and could be an up and coming team to watch as they won't be eligible to compete internationally for three more years, giving them plenty of time to grow and develop.


My podium predictions:
Gold: Moore/Klaber
Silver: Miller/MacMillan
Bronze: Rosinski/Jaffe
Pewter: Lewis/Bye


Bios of the competitors:
Meara Lorello/William Dean: They represent the University of Delaware Figure Skating Club.  They finished 14th in Juvenile in 2010 and are the 2011 Intermediate Champions.  They won bronze at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.


Rebecca Lucas/Yan Kazansky: She represents the Triangle Figure Skating Club and he represents the Columbia Figure Skating Club of Maryland.  They won silver at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.


Whitney Miller/Kyle MacMillan: They represent the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They won gold at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  


Karen Tong/David Cruikshank: She represents the Skating Club of New York and he represents the Windy Hill Skating Club.  They won pewter at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Sierra Chadwick/Alexander Martin: They represent the Detroit Skating Club.  They finished 8th in Juvenile in 2009, are the 2010 Juvenile Bronze Medalists and the 2011 Intermediate Bronze Medalists.  They won pewter at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.


Madison George/Brad Kleffman: They represent the Detroit Skating Club.  They won bronze at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  


Holly Moore/Daniel Klaber: They represent the Pavilion Skating Club.  They finished 8th in Juvenile in 2008, 5th in Juvenile in 2009, are the 2010 Intermediate Silver Medalists and finished 8th in Novice in 2011.  They won gold at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.


Hannah Rosinski/Jacob Jaffe : They represent the Pavilion Skating Club.  They won silver at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals. 

Lauren Leonesio/Dustin Perini: She represents the Coyotes Skating Club of Arizona.  They won pewter at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  


Chloe Lewis/Logan Bye: She is 10 years old and represents the All Year Figure Skating Club.  He represents the Broadmoor Skating Club.  They finished 6th in Intermediate in 2011.  They won gold at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.


Hannah Pfeifer/Grant Lorello: She represents the All Year Figure Skating Club and he represents the University of Delaware Figure Skating Club.  They won bronze at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.


Stacey Siddon/Jared Weiss: She is 17 and he is 18.  She represents the Ann Arbor Figure Skating Club and he represents the All Year Figure Skating Club.  They won silver at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

2 comments:

  1. After reading your article, I have come to the conclusion that you are a biast reporter. Not only do you downgrade Miller/MacMillan, but you favor Moore/Klaber.

    Sports predictions is one of the finest things a sports journalist can do. While it may be feasable in baseball, basketball or hockey, it is almost impossible in skating. Not only do competitors at this level compete around six times per year, there is no access to practice sessions or interviews. Within the time allowed between the sectionals and nationals, much improvement can be made. Figure skating is a very unpredictable sport, the slightest mistake costing someone a medal.

    Moving on to the technical part of your analysis, you seem to have only regarded the sectional scores. This being, one of the largest mistakes one could make in any sports prediction. Even this, simple analysis of scores was wrong. Miller/MacMillan's Eastern Sectional win was not due completely to the Kilian scores. Not only did they both fall on the Argentine Tango, resulting in a two point deduction and the loss of a segment score, they still produced a higher score on the Tango than Moore/Klaber, who did not fall.

    On the Free Dance, Moore/Klaber scored two points higher than Miller/MacMillan. Throughout the season, Moore/Klaber have not augmented their free dance score, their highest being at the Chesapeake Open, the second competition of the year.

    Secondly, during Miller/MacMillan's free dance MacMillan lost a level on the twizzles and it was not as strong a free dance as we are used to seeing. In the eight weeks between sectionals and nationals, they can easily improve to gain more than five points, beating Moore/Klaber's top score.

    Before writing another biast figure skating prediction article, I would recommend researching every competition. Not only are there different judges at each competition, which affects the scores greatly, skaters are not perfect every time.

    Yet to write about Novice Ice Dance is just peculiar. Unless you have inside information about all the top competitors it is impossible to know about their practice or workouts.

    I hope you will take this into consideration next time.

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  2. Thanks for reading and posting your comments.

    For clarification, I come to my predictions by taking the time to read up on the teams, watch their programs and look at their elements compared to the scoring system to really see who I think will come out on top. But like you pointed out, ice is slippery and anything can happen. These are just my best guesses as to what I think will happen.

    A significant portion of my analysis for this event is based on Sectionals as it is the most recent and high pressure event for these young skaters. How they handle the pressure of sectionals vs. a summer competition is very different and is a better predictor for how they'll do at nationals.

    I also fully believe that with the additional training time, we'll see improvement from ALL the teams and hopefully a great competition. I think it's going to be a very tight race for gold and silver.

    Thanks again for reading and I look forward to a great competition!

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