Four Continents Championships: Mens Preview

Kozuka has had a great season, winning gold at his two Grand Prix assignments and bronze at the Grand Prix Final.  His programs are not necessarily memorable but he can execute them flawlessly and has put up some of the highest scores of the season.  He has the 5th best short program, 2nd best free skate and 2nd best total score for the season.  He also defeated a tough field to win his first national title.  In the absence of Patrick Chan and Nobunari Oda, I think the gold is his to lose.  I'd like to see him work on his performance skills and if he can bring these into his programs, his scores should continue to improve.

After winning an Olympic medal and a World Championship, Takahashi has seemed to struggle through the beginning of this season.  He finished 4th at the Grand Prix Final and finished well behind Kozuka at Japanese nationals.  His performance skills and ability to bring a crowd into a performance continue to be unmatched, but his jumping skills haven't been on.  Falls and struggles on landings have hampered his ability to perform up to his skill level and his quad has not made an appearance this season.  Most of his struggles appear to be in his free skate, so if he can get more consistent on landing all the jumps he could contend for gold here, but I think he'll settle for silver.  He has the 3rd best short program, 3rd best free skate, and 4th best total score for the season.

Adam Rippon is the reigning Four Continents Champion.  He has had some struggles this season, but when he can put two clean programs together, his scores are phenomenal.  He especially grew during nationals when he made a mistake in the opening jump of his free skate after a disastrous short program.  He was able to refocus after the mistake and go clean for the rest of his program and finish 3rd in the segment.  He has the 7th best short program, 6th best free skate and 5th best total score for the season.  All of these scores came from Skate Canada and he hasn't been able to match them since.  He isn't going to Worlds, so this is his last competition of the season and he has no reason to hold anything back which could help propel him to the podium.

Jeremy Abbott has been skating clean shorts all season and his flamenco program seems to get better with each outing.  His free skate is beautifully choreographed and is lovely to witness but he's struggled to stay on his feet.  I'd love to see him hit both of his programs and if he does, he should have no problem landing on the podium.  This is also his last competition of the season so he has nothing to lose here.  He has the 6th best short program and 10th best total score of the season.

Kevin Reynolds has the ability to be a spoiler in a big way.  He is the only man to land two quads in his short program and he also has two quads in his free skate.  He's never been able to put all of these elements together into two solid programs.  He did so poorly at Canadian nationals that he didn't qualify for the World Team, so this will be his final competition of the season.  He has the 4th best short program and 9th best total score for the season.

Hanyu the reigning World Junior Champion and Mahbanoozadeh, the Skate America bronze medalist, look to cap their seasons with a strong finish here and have been fairly consistent across the season.  If they continue to skate clean they could wind up on the podium if the top men make mistakes.

My podium predictions:
Gold: Kozuka
Silver: Takahashi
Bronze: Abbott

My USFSA Fantasy Team:
A) Kozuka
B) Hanyu
C) Ge
Brendan Kerry, AUS: He finished 14th and 20th at his two JGP assignments this season.

Mark Webster, AUS: He finished 39th at the World Championships and 18th at Four Continents last season. 

Kevin Reynolds, CAN: Reynolds finished 11th at Worlds with a personal best free skate score and won bronze at Four Continents with a personal best short program.  He finished 4th at Skate Canada with a personal best total score and 4th at Trophee Eric Bompard. 

Joey Russell, CAN: Russell finished 11th at Four Continents last season with personal best free skate and total scores.  He is the 2006 national junior champion. 

Shawn Sawyer, CAN: Sawyer placed 7th at Four Continents with a personal best score in the free skate.  He finished 5th at the NHK Trophy and 8th at Skate America. 

Jinlin Guan, CHN: He is the 2008 World Juniors Bronze Medalist.  He placed 17th at last year's world championships.  He finished 8th at Cup of China with a personal best free skate and total score.
 
Nan Song, CHN: Song placed 6th at the Four Continents Championships with personal bests in the short program and total score.  He is the reigning World Junior silver medalist after a personal best score in the free skate.  He finished 10th in his Grand Prix debut at Skate America and 6th at Trophee Eric Bompard.

Jialing Wu, CHN: Wu is the three time national champion.  He placed 8th at last year's Four Continents with personal best short and free skating scores.  He finished 7th at this season's NHK Trophy and 10th at Cup of China.

Jordan Ju, TPE: He finished 13th at both his Junior Grand Prix assignments this season.

Stephen Li-Chung Kuo, TPE: He finished 37th at Worlds, 16th at Four Continents and 22nd at the World Junior Championships. 

Wun-Chang Shih, TPE: He finished 20th at Four Continents last season.

Yuzuru Hanyu, JPN: Hanyu is the reigning World Junior Champion.  He started his season with a 4th place finish at NHK Trophy with personal best scores across the board and a 7th place finish at Cup of Russia with a personal best short program.

Takahiko Kozuka, JPN: Kozuka placed 8th at the Olympics and 10th at the World Championships.  He is the 2006 World Junior Champion and the 2009 Four Continents bronze medalist.  He won Cup of China and Trophee Eric Bompard with a personal best free skate and total score to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where he won bronze. 

Daisuke Takahashi, JPN: He won bronze at the Olympics with a personal best short program score.  He is the reigning world champion.  He has previously won gold and bronze at the Four Continents Championships and silver at the World Championships.  He won the NHK Trophy and Skate America to qualify for the Grand Prix Final where he finished 4th. 

Abzal Rakimgaliev, KAZ: He finished 26th at the Olympics, 21st at Worlds, 13th at Four Continents and 11th at World Juniors.  He won bronze at his first JGP assignment this season and placed 8th at his second assignment.

Denis Ten, KAZ: Ten placed 11th at the Olympics and 13th at the World Championships with a personal best short program.  He finished 10th at Four Continents.  He finished 12th at the NHK Trophy and 11th at Skate America.

Min-Seok Kim, KOR: Kim finished 23rd at Worlds, 14th at Four Continents and 25th at World Juniors.  He finished 11th and 12th at his two Junior Grand Prix assignments this season.

Jeremy Abbott, USA: Abbott finished 9th at the Olympics and 5th at Worlds.  He is the 2007 Four Continents Bronze Medalist.  He won silver at NHK Trophy and bronze at Cup of Russia. 
Armin Mahbanoozadeh, USA: He placed 10th at the World Junior Championships.  He won bronze at Skate America with personal best scores across the board.

Adam Rippon, USA: He placed 6th at the World Championships with a personal best short program score and is the reigning Four Continents champion with a personal best free skate score.  He won bronze at Skate Canada with a personal best total score and finished 4th at Skate America. 

Misha Ge, UZB: He finished 6th at the Asian Winter Games.

Canadian Nationals Recap and International Teams

Mens:

Patrick Chan won this competition to no one's surprise, but what was surprising was the margin he won by.  His total competition score was 285.85, a Canadian record, and even taking into account score inflation, this is an astronomical score.  He landed two solid quads in his free skate (one in combination) and a nice triple axel.  The choreography and the performance will give you goosebumps and it's definitely a World Championship winning performance.  Video of his free skate can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPcPTXUh1uA

Shawn Sawyer delivered a brilliant performance to win the silver medal and secure his spot on the World team.  He has a very entertaining free program and it's nice to see him match his artistic ability with technical skills.  Here's his program: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dv2hBOJALYM

A relative unknown internationally, Joey Russell was able to finish third in both segments and claim the bronze medal.  Kevin Reynolds struggled and was only able to finish 4th.

The Four Continents Team will be Sawyer, Russell and Reynolds.  The Worlds Team will be Chan, Sawyer and Russell.

Liam Firus had a strong showing to finish 6th while Andre Rogozine struggled and was only able to finish 13th.  Both will represent Canada at the World Junior Championships.

Ladies:

Cynthia Phaneuf was able to claim her second Canadian title, her first won back in 2004.  She won by nearly 15 points against several strong competitors.  Here's her free skate: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEzIR1k0Dkk

Myriane Samson had a strong free skate to claim the silver medal and her spot on the World team.  She beat out bronze medalist Amelie Lacoste by 6 points.  Samson's free skate is here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEm6hEtoGyo

The Four Continents Team will be Phaneuf, Samson and Lacoste.  The World Team will be Phaneuf and Samson.

Alexandra Najarro finished 4th and Vanessa Grenier finished 7th to qualify for the World Juniors Team.

2010 Pairs Champion Jessica Dube finished a strong 6th in singles.  She plans to return to pairs skating with her partner Bryce Davison next season.

Pairs:

Moore-Towers and Moscovitch have emerged as a top pairs team in Canada and the World after their trip to the Grand Prix Final.  They had two strong programs and easily took the title by 16 points.  Here's their free skate from Skate Canada: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cB8MGg1HOwE

The new team of Duhamel and Radford had a strong free skate to climb up to second place in the standings.  They had a strong outing at their Grand Prix debut and have continued to improve.  They had a few blips with their short program that they'll want to clean up before worlds, but this team could definitely contend for the national title next season.  Here's their free skate from earlier this season: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZzC3JSg7Ji4

The Four Continents Team is Moore-Towers/Moscovitch, Duhamel/Radford, and Lawrence/Swiegers.  The Worlds Team is Moore-Towers/Moscovitch and Duhamel/Radford.

Jones and Gaskell finished 6th.  They will be joined on the World Junior Team by Purich and Schultz.

Ice Dance

Virtue and Moir unfortunately had to pull out of nationals.  This means that Four Continents will be the first time we get a look at their programs and how they've been training since Tessa's surgery.  I have no doubts they can make the World podium, just what color medal they'll receive.

Nationals did show how incredibly talented and deep Canada's field is.  Unfortunately there are four teams that all could do well at nationals and are continuing to climb the ranks and Canada can only have three spots on their International teams.  And their top teams are all relatively the same age and in a sport where competitors can easily go into their late 20s and 30s, there may not be room for new teams for some time.

Crone and Poirier are actually the youngest of the bunch and were able to squeak out their first ever Canadian title by only 1.03 points.  They're still not ready to challenge the very top tier of teams as Davis and White have scored over 100 points on their free skate internationally and Crone and Poirier were just shy of this mark at nationals where scores are generally elevated.  Here's their free dance: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWnfkJZk020

Right on their tails are Weaver and Poje.  These teams have such different styles and their scores and abilities are so close that it often comes down to a matter of preference.  Both of these teams made the Grand Prix Final and I think they'll continue to battle it out at home and internationally for years to come.  Their free dance: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b6F_KyIlDBY

The Four Continents and Worlds Team is: Virtue/Moir, Crone/Poirier, and Weaver/Poje.

The Junior World Team is Orford/Williams and Oliveira/Hockley.

Canadian Nationals: Mens Free Skate

1. Patrick Chan: 103.41 TES + 93.66 PCS = 197.07
1. He executed a Quadruple Toe, Quadruple Toe + Triple Toe, Triple Lutz, Level 3 Step Sequence, Level 4 Sit Spin, Triple Axel, Triple Lutz + Single Loop + Triple Salchow, Level 3 Camel Spin, Triple Flip, Triple Loop + Double Toe, Double Axel, and Level 3 Combination Spin with all positive GOEs.
2. Shawn Sawyer: 75.09 TES + 76.36 PCS = 151.45
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Flip + Triple Toe, Triple Lutz, Triple Salchow, Level 4 Sit Spin, Triple Loop, Triple Flip (under-rotated) + Triple Loop, Level 2 Step Sequence, Double Axel, Level 4 Camel Spin, Double Axel + Double Toe + Double Loop and Level 4 Combination Spin with only one negative GOE.
3. Joey Russell: 67.49 TES + 68.12 PCS -1.00 = 134.61
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Flip + Triple Loop, Triple Lutz + Double Toe + Double Loop, Level 3 Sit Spin, Double Axel, Level 2 Step Sequence, Triple Flip (under-rotated and fall), Triple Lutz, Triple Salchow +Triple Toe, Double Axel, Level 3 Sit Spin, and Level 4 Combination Spin with only three negative GOEs.
4. Kevin Reynolds: 67.33 TES + 63.76 PCS -1.00 =130.09
1. He executed a Double Salchow, Quadruple Toe, Triple Axel, Level 4 Upright Spin, Triple Loop, Triple Axel (under-rotated) + Double Toe, Triple Lutz, Level 3 Sit Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence, Triple Salchow, Triple Flip + Triple Toe + Double Loop, and Level 4 Combination Spin with only four negative GOEs.
5. Liam Firus: 62.82 TES + 61.92 PCS = 124.74
1. He executed a Triple Lutz + Triple Toe, Double Axel + Triple Toe, Triple Flip (edge call), Level 4 Sit Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence, Triple Loop, Triple Salchow, Triple Lutz, Double Axel + Double Toe + Single Loop, Double Flip, Level 3 Combination Spin and Level 4 Sit Spin with only three negative GOEs.
6. Elladj Balde: 61.25 TES + 63.84 PCS -1.00 = 124.09
1. He executed a Triple Axel (fall), Double Axel + Triple Toe, Triple Lutz, Level 3 Sit Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence, Triple Flip, Triple Lutz + Double Toe, Triple Salchow, Double Axel, Triple Loop, Level 1 Combination Spin and Level 4 Combination spin with only three negative GOEs.
7. Ronald Lam: 62.72 TES + 54.58 PCS = 117.30
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Lutz + Triple Toe, Single Loop, Level 2 Upright Spin, Triple Flip (edge call)+ Double Toe + Double Toe, Triple Lutz, Triple Salchow, Triple Flip + Double Toe, Level 3 Step Sequence, Double Axel, Level 3 Sit Spin and Level 3 Combination Spin with only four negative GOEs.
8. Samuel Morais: 62.29 TES + 51.00 PCS =113.29
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Lutz + Triple Toe, Triple Axel + Salchow, Level 4 Sit Spin, Triple Lutz, Triple Salchow, Level 3 Step Sequence, Triple Flip (under-rotated), Double Axel + Double Axel Sequence, Triple Loop, Level 4 Upright Spin, and Level 3 Combination Spin with only three negative GOEs.
9. Dave Ferland: 58.61 TES + 54.60 PCS =113.21
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Loop, Triple Flip (under-rotated), Level 3 Sit Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence, Triple Salchow, Triple Toe, Triple Salchow + Double Toe + Double Loop, Level 2 Sit Sopin, Triple Loop + Double Toe, Double Axel + Double Axel Sequence, and Level 3 Combination Spin with five positive GOEs.
10. Maxime-Billy Fortin: 54.81 TES + 56.70 PCS =
1. He executed a Single Axel, Triple Flip + Triple Toe, Triple Lutz, Level 3 Sit Spin, Triple Salchow, Triple Loop, Level 1 Combination Spin, Triple Flip, Triple Salchow + Double Toe, Level 3 Step Sequence, Double Axel and Level 1 Camel Spin with only three negative GOEs.

Final Results:

1. Patrick Chan: 285.85
2. Shawn Sawyer: 229.09
3. Joey Russell: 204.02
4. Kevin Reynolds: 191.85
5. Elladj Balde: 190.16
6. Liam Firus: 185.40
7. Ronald Lam: 174.69
8. Ian Martinez: 169.38
9. Marc-Andre Craig: 165.82
10. Maxime-Billy Fortin: 163.77

Canadian Nationals: Mens Short Program

1. Patrick Chan: 44.48 TES + 44.30 PCS = 88.78
1. He executed a Quadrupe Toe, Double Axel, Level 4 Combination Spin, Triple Flip + Triple Toe, Level 4 Sit Spin, Level 3 Camel Spin and Level 3 Step Sequence with all positive GOEs.
2. Shawn Sawyer: 41.59 TES + 36.05 PCS = 77.64
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Flip + Triple Toe, Triple Lutz, Level 4 Sit Spin, Level 4 Camel Spin, Level 3 Step Sequence, and Level 4 Combination Spin with only one negative GOE.
3. Joey Russell: 36.36. TES + 33.05 PCS = 69.41
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Flip + Triple Loop, Level 3 Sit Spin, Triple Lutz, Level 3 Camel Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence, and Level 3 Combination Spin with only one negative GOE.
4. Elladj Baldes: 35.64 TES + 30.43 PCS = 66.07
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Flip + Triple Toe, Triple Lutz, Level 4 Sit Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence, Level 2 Camel Spin and Level 3 Combination Spin with only one negative GOE.
5. Kevin Reynolds: 30.04 TES + 31.72 PCS = 61.76
1. He executed a Quadruple Salchow (under-rotated) + Double Toe, Single Axel, Quadruple Toe, Level 4 Upright Spin, Level 4 Sit Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence and Level 4 Combination Spin with four positive GOEs.
6. Ian Martinez: 31.52 TES + 29.88 PCS = 61.40
1. He executed a Double Axel, Triple Flip + Triple Toe, Triple Lutz, Level 2 Camel Spin, Level 4 Sit Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence and Level 3 Combination Spin with only one negative GOE.
7. Liam Firus: 30.06 TES + 30.60 PCS = 60.66
1. He executed a Triple Lutz + Triple Toe, Triple Loop, Double Axel, Level 1 Combination Spin, Level 4 Upright Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence and Level 4 Camel Spin with only one negative GOE.
8. Patrick Myzyk: 30.92 TES + 27.42 PCS = 58.34
1. He executed a Triple Lutz + Double Toe, Triple Flip, Level 4 Sit Spin, Double Axel, Level 4 Camel Spin, Level 2 Step Sequence and Level 4 Combination Spin with no negative GOEs.
9. Marc-André Craig: 30.17 TES + 28.92 PCS -1.00 = 58.09
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Flip + Double Toe, Level 3 Camel Spin, Triple Lutz (edge call and fall), Level 4 Combination Spin, Level 3 Sit Spin and Level 2 Step Sequence with only two negative GOEs.
10. Ronald Lam: 32.60 TES + 24.79 PCS = 57.39
1. He executed a Triple Axel, Triple Flip + Triple Toe, Triple Lutz, Level 3 Sit Spin, Level 3 Step Sequence, Level 3 Upright Spin and Level 1 Combination Spin with only two negative GOEs.

Canadian Nationals: Mens Preview

Canada has 3 spots for both the 4 Continents Championships and the World Championships.

This is Patrick Chan's competition to lose.  He is the Grand Prix Final Champion and two-time World Silver Medalist.  He has added quads to his arsenal this season and his free skate is one of the best put together and beautifully choreographed routines I have seen.  He has recently announced that he is has been practicing two quads in his free skate and might try it at nationals.  He's had trouble staying on his feet this season, but his program components are consistently through the roof and I think he can fall here and still be safe. 

Kevin Reynolds has two 4th place finishes on the Grand Prix and has some high power jumps, including two quads in his short program.  He seems to have problems landing them consistently and without the program components to back them up, he needs to stay on his feet but should have no problem making the podium. 

Shawn Sawyer had a respectable Grand Prix season and his Alice in Wonderland free skate is full of nuances and is extremely enjoyable to watch.  He has great artistry and flexibility but doesn't have the jump content to push him higher on the world stage.

Rogozine is also looking to make a splash in his second season as a senior nationally.  He was the top qualifier to the Junior Grand Prix Final but struggled with his short program and was only able to take home the bronze from the competition.  He should put the greatest pressure on Sawyer for the third podium spot and is looking to make his first senior worlds team.

Ian Martinez and Marc-Andre Craig were neck and neck to go 1-2 at Challenge.  This was the first year that Eastern and Western Challenge were combined, so I expect to see a little movement as skaters perform better or worse but the placements should stay relatively the same and these two had a lead over the rest of the field.  One of them could challenge for a podium spot if there are lots of mistakes upon the top 4.

Liam Firus and Samuel Morais lead the young skaters competing on the senior level for the first time.  They went 3-4 at Challenge and may be looking to move up a position or two and secure their Junior World Championships slots.

The skaters in reverse qualification order:

Charles Dion: He qualified with a 14th place finish at Challenge.  He finished 10th at nationals at the junior level last season.

Patrick Wong: He qualified with a 13th place finish at Challenge.  He finished 14th at nationals last season.

Raphael Yacobi-Harris: He qualified with a 12th place finish at Challenge.  He finished 6th at nationals at the junior level last season.

Andrew Lum: Lum finished 14th at his last international appearance on the JGP circuit in 2008.  He qualified with an 11th place finish at Challenge.  He finished 17th at nationals last season.

Ronald Lam: He finished 20th at the World Junior Championships last season with a personal best short program.  He qualified with a 10th place finish at Challenge.  He finished 9th at nationals last season. 

Dave Ferland: Ferland finished 12th at his last international appearance on the JGP circuit in 2008.  He qualified with a 9th place finish at Challenge.  He finished 15th at nationals last season.

Maxime-Billy Fortin:  He qualified with an 8th place finish at Challenge. 

Patrick Myzyk: He qualified with a 7th place finish at Challenge.  He finished 15th at nationals at the junior level last season.

Elladj Balde: He finished 8th at Junior Worlds in 2009.  He is the 2008 junior national champion.  He qualified with a 6th place finish at Challenge.  He last appeared at nationals in 2009 when he finished 10th.

Samuel Morais: Morais finished 6th at JGP Cup of Austria and 7th at Pokal der Blauen.  He qualified with a 5th place finish at Challenge.  He is the reigning junior national silver medalist.

Liam Firus: He finished 5th at the JGP Brasov Cup and won bronze at J. Curry Memorial.  He qualified with a 4th place finish at Challenge.  He is the reigning junior national champion. 

Joey Russell: Russell finished 11th at Four Continents last season with personal best free skate and total scores.  He is the 2006 national junior champion.  He qualified with a 3rd place finish at Challenge.  He had his best finish at nationals last season when he placed 5th.   

Marc-Andre Craig: He finished 11th at his last international competition, NHK Trophy 2006.  He qualified with a 2nd place finish at Challenge.  He finished 10th at nationals last season.

Ian Martinez: Martinez finished 10th at his last international competition, Skate America 2008.  He qualified with a 1st place finish at Challenge.  He had his best finish at nationals last season, placing 6th.

Andrei Rogozine: He placed 6th at the World Junior Championships last season.  He won bronze at the Junior Grand Prix Final after winning gold at both JGP Courchevel and SBC Cup.  He is the 2009 national junior champion and placed 11th in seniors last season. 

Shawn Sawyer: Sawyer placed 7th at Four Continents with a personal best score in the free skate.  He placed 8th at his first Grand Prix assignment last season before winning silver at Skate America.  He finished 5th at the NHK Trophy and 8th at Skate America.  He finished 4th at nationals last season, and he is a three time national bronze medalist.

Kevin Reynolds: Reynolds finished 11th at Worlds with a personal best free skate score and won bronze at Four Continents with a personal best short program.  He finished 4th at Skate Canada with a personal best total score and 4th at Trophee Eric Bompard.  His highest finish at nationals was last season when he won bronze.

Patrick Chan: Chan finished 5th at the Olympics and won silver at worlds.  He is the 2009 Four Continents Champion and World Silver Medalist.  He is the 2007 World Junior Silver Medalist.  He won the Grand Prix Final with a personal best free skate and total score after winning gold at Skate Canada and silver at Rostelecom Cup.  He is going for his 4th consecutive national title.

Note: Jeremy Ten has withdrawn due to surgery.