US Nationals Junior Dance Preview

This is an extremely talented field with 12 Junior Grand Prix assignments among the teams and four medals (not including the Parsons who had to withdraw due to injury).

Aldridge and Eaton are the reigning Junior Champions.  They won the bronze medal at Junior Worlds last season and backed it up with a bronze medal at the Junior Grand Prix Final.  They tend to fall behind in the short dance but their Fiddler on the Roof free dance is skated so well they have overcome large deficits at some of their international assignments.  Despite being the reigning champions, there are several teams hot on their tail and they only have a few points advantage to play with.  However, they are still the overwhelming favorites and should be able to repeat and claim another ticket to Junior Worlds.

Hawayek and Baker may be able to pull off the upset and take the title from Aldridge and Eaton.  They are a new team this season but both were extremely strong with their previous partners.  Hawayek competed as a junior at nationals last season and Baker made a run for the junior title in 2011 but sat out last season after his partner retired due to injuries.  They had a decent showing at their first JGP outing in Turkey but won the silver medal in Germany.  They even had better short dance and total scores than Aldridge and Eaton.  However, their nationals scores were below the marks that Aldridge and Eaton are hitting internationally.  They may have the edge in the short dance but will need a big lead and a solid free dance if they want to take home the title.

McNamara and Carpenter are also in the gold medal mix.  They are one of the youngest teams in the field despite the fact that this is their third season competing as juniors and they are the reigning bronze medalists.  They earned a slot to junior worlds last season but were not old enough to go.  They competed against Hawayek and Baker in Turkey and finished two places ahead of them, putting them right in the mix.  They have great expression and a quirkiness to their skating that is evident in their short dance but are also able to show a more elegant side as well.

Pogrebinsky and Gudis train alongside McNamara and Carpenter.  They finished 8th as juniors last season but actually beat Aldridge and Eaton in the free dance at Lake Placid Ice Dance Championships over the summer.  They have nice elements but are a bit more tentative than the top teams.  While they likely won't be in contention for the gold, the podium is definitely within their reach.

Moore and Klaber are the reigning Novice Champions and have already made their junior debut internationally.  They train at the Detroit Skating Club alongside some of the top skaters in the world.  Their free dance was over the 70 point mark which keeps them on pace for the podium but they'll want to improve the levels in the short dance.

Also in the mix are Heritage and Fast who competed at JGP Lake Placid earlier this season and Miller/MacMillan who competed at JGP Austria. 

My podium predictions:
Gold: Aldridge/Eaton
Silver: Hawayek/Baker
Bronze: McNamara/Carpenter
Pewter: Pogrebinsky/Gudis

Bios of the competitors:
Aldridge/Eaton: She is 18 and he is 20.  They represent the Detroit Skating Club.  They won gold at JGP USA and gold at JGP Slovenia to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they won bronze.  They are the 2010 Novice Champions, finished 5th in Juniors in 2011 and are the reigning Junior Champions.  They have the 5th best short dance, 3rd best free dance and 4th best total scores internationally.

Biechler/Dodge: She represents the Skating Club of Wilmington and he represents the Peninsula Skating Club.  They won bronze at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the 10th best free dance and 10th best total scores nationally.

Hawayek/Baker: She represents the Detroit Skating Club and he represents the Seattle Skating Club.  They placed 5th at JGP Turkey and won silver at JGP Germany.  They won gold at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the 4th best short dance, 7th best free dance and 3rd best total scores internationally.  They have the 3rd best short dance, best free dance and 3rd best total scores nationally.

Heritage/Fast: She is 18 and he is 21.  They represent the University Ice Skating Club of San Jose.  They finished 7th at JGP USA.  They are the 2008 Juvenile Champions, finished 8th in Intermediate in 2009, finished 9th in Novice in 2010, 8th in Junior in 2011 and 5th in Juniors in 2012.  They won gold at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the 5th best short dance, 6th best free dance and 6th best total scores nationally.

McNamara/Carpenter: She is 13 and he is 16.  She represents the Peninsula Skating Club and he represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They finished 6th at JGP France and 4th at JGP Turkey.  They are the reigning Junior bronze medalists.  They are the 2008 Juvenile pewter medalists, 2009 Intermediate pewter medalists, finished 6th in Novice in 2010 and 9th in Junior in 2011.  They won gold at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the best short dance, 3rd best free dance and best total scores nationally.

Miller/MacMillan: She is 14 and he is 15.  They represent the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They placed 10th at JGP Austria.  They are the reigning Novice silver medalists.  They won pewter at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.   They have the 7th best short dance, 7th best free dance and 7th best total scores nationally.

Min/Ogay: She represents the Los Angeles Figure Skating Club and he represents the Skating Club of Novi.  They won silver at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the 8th best short dance, 8th best free dance and 8th best total scores nationally.

Moore/Klaber: She is 17 and he is 18.  They represent the Detroit Skating Club.  They placed 8th at JGP France.  They are the reigning Novice Champions.  They finished 8th in Juvenile in 2008, 5th in Juvenile in 2009, are the 2010 Intermediate Silver Medalists and finished 8th in Novice in 2011.  They won silver at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the 6th best short dance, 4th best free dance and 5th best total scores nationally.  

Pogrebinsky/Gudis: She is 14 and he is 17.  She represents the Peninsula Figure Skating Club and he represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They placed 6th at JGP USA and 11th at JGP Slovenia.  They are the 2010 Intermediate bronze medalists, the 2011 Novice pewter medalists and finished 8th in Juniors in 2012.  They won bronze at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the 4th best short dance, 5th best free dance and 4th best total scores nationally.   

Reid/Erwin: They represent the Wisconsin Figure Skating Club.  They won pewter at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Rosinski/Jaffe: She is 17 and he is 18.  They represent the Pavilion Skating Club of Cleveland Heights.  They are the reigning Novice pewter medalists.  They won bronze at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the 9th best short dance, 9th best free dance and 9th best total scores nationally.

Siddon/Weiss: She is 18 and he is 19.  She represents the Ann Arbor Figure Skating Club and he represents the All Year Figure Skating Club.  They finished 5th as Novices in 2012.  They won pewter at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  They have the 10th best short dance score  nationally.

Pacific Coast Sectionals Junior Dance Results

Place	Start No.	Name	Short Dance		Free Dance		Total Score
			Place	Score	Place	Score
1	4	Madeline Heritage, University ISC of San Jose Nathaniel Fast, University ISC of San Jose	1	46.24	1	65.18	111.42
2	6	Yura Min, Los Angeles FSC Igor Ogay, SC of Novi	2	43.54	2	58.28	101.82
3	7	Julia Biechler, SC of Wilmington Damian Dodge, Peninsula SC	4	37.95	3	55.59	93.54
4	5	Stacey Siddon, Ann Arbor FSC Jared Weiss, All Year FSC	3	38.92	4	52.19	91.11
5	3	Rachel Brozina, Philadelphia SC & HS Nicholas Taylor, Peninsula SC	6	36.28	5	49.95	86.23
6	2	Emily Day, Los Angeles FSC Kevin Leahy, Los Angeles FSC	5	37.28	6	48.18	85.46
WD		Amy Wang, Philadelphia SC & HS Malcolm Jones, Orange County FSC	7	19.03

Pacific Coast Sectionals Preview

Saturday, November 10th
6:20-7:25 Novice Pattern Dance
8:25-9:30 Novice Ladies Short Program
9:45-10:45 Junior Short Dance
11:00-12:05 Novice Men's Short Program

Sunday, November 11th
6:10-6:50 Novice Free Dance
7:05-7:55 Junior Men's Short Program
8:10-9:25 Novice Ladies Free Skate
10:05-11:15 Novice Men's Free Skate

Monday, November 12th
12:50-1:05 Novice Pairs Short Program
1:05-2:10 Junior Ladies Short Program
2:25-3:00 Junior Pairs Short Program
5:50-7:10 Senior Ladies Short Program
7:30-8:35 Junior Men's Free Skate
8:50-9:55 Junior Free Dance
10:10-10:55 Senior Men's Short Program

Tuesday, November 13th
12:30-1:45 Junior Ladies Free Skate
2:00-2:20 Novice Pairs Free Skate
2:20-2:55 Junior Pairs Free Skate
4:30-6:15 Senior Ladies Free Skate
6:30-7:30 Senior Men's Free Skate

Senior Ladies

Thirteen ladies are competing for four places at nationals.  Vanessa Lam placed 9th at nationals last season and finished 4th at her JGP assignment.  She has the 3rd best short program, best free skate and best total score from regionals.  Sophia Adams placed 17th at nationals last season.

Courtney Hicks was injured last season and couldn't compete at nationals.  She placed 4th and won a silver medal at her two JGP assignments.

Senior Men

Seven men are competing for four spots to nationals.  Keegan Messing placed 7th at nationals last season and won gold at Cup of Nice and bronze at Nebelhorn Trophy.  Scott Dyer finished 10th at nationals and Jonathan Cassar finished 11th.  Philip Warren is the reigning Junior Bronze Medalist.

Senior Pairs

Denney and Frazier have chosen to take their bye to nationals so this event will not be contested.

Senior Dance

This will be exhibition only as only Tran and Kaplun are competing.

Junior Ladies

There are twelve ladies competing for four places at nationals.  Polina Edmunds finished 6th at nationals last season and has the 2nd best short program, best free skate and best total score from regionals.  Gwendolyn Prescott finished 7th at nationals last season and has the 9th best short program score from regionals.  Camille Davis finished 12th at nationals.

Karen Chen is the reigning Novice Ladies Champion and has the 6th best short program, 5th best free skate and 5th best total regional score.  Amanda Gelb is the reigning Novice Ladies Bronze Medalist and has the 10th best regional score.  Selena Zhao finished 7th as a novice last season and has the 6th best free skate and total score after regionals.  Dylan McIntee finished 9th as a novice last season. 

Junior Men

Eight men are competing for four spots at nationals.  Nathan Chen is the reigning National Champion and won gold at his JGP assignment.  Shotaro Omori placed 4th at his two JGP assignments this season.  

Vincent Zhou is the reigning Novice National Champion and has the best short program, free skate and total score from regionals.  Spencer Howe is the reigning Novice Bronze Medalist and has the 3rd best short program score from regionals.  

Junior Pairs

Four teams are competing and all will qualify to nationals.  Calalang and Sidhu are the reigning Pewter Medalists and finished 6th and 8th at their two JGP assignments this season.  Pfund and Reiss placed  5th at nationals and finished 7th at their JGP assignment.

Liu and Perini are the reigning Novice Champions and Fields/Pacini are the reigning Novice Silver Medalists.

Junior Dance

Six teams are competing for four spots at nationals.  Heritage and Fast finished 5th at nationals last season and placed 7th at their JGP assignment.  Siddon and Weiss finished 5th at the novice level last season.  

Novice Ladies

Twelve ladies are competing for four places at nationals.  Elizabeth Nguyen is the reigning Intermediate Silver Medalist and has the 7th best short program and total score from regionals.  Tyler Pierce is the reigning Intermediate Bronze Medalist and has the best short program, 3rd best free skate and best total regional score.  Sarah Feng finished 8th in Intermediate last season and has the 8th best regional short program score.  Cheyenne Taylor finished 10th and  Brittney Shiue finished 19th last season.   

Novice Men

Ten men are competing for four spots at nationals.  Wilbur Ji finished 12th at nationals last season.  

Paolo Borromeo is the reigning Intermediate Men's Bronze Medalist.  He has the 4th best free skate and 6th best total score from regionals.  Harrison Wong is the reigning Intermediate Men's Pewter Medalist.  

Novice Pairs

Two teams are competing and both will advance to nationals.  Middleton and Hennings finished 5th at nationals last season.  Erickson and Fleming finished 10th as Intermediates last season.

Novice Dance

Six teams are competing for four spots at nationals.  Lewis and Bye are the reigning Pewter Medalists.  Feng and Pomarenkeo finished 5th at the Intermediate level last season and Luo and Cheung finished 11th.

U.S. Nationals Junior Dance Preview

This event features the reigning Junior medalists as well as all the novice medalists from last season.  Six of these teams are returning to nationals as juniors and seven of the teams competed on the Junior Grand Prix with one team qualifying for the Final.  With the Latin short dance requirement, the older teams will have an advantage as they will better be able to understand and capture the feeling of a Latin dance.  If a younger team can capture that flavor they'll also have a great shot at the podium.

Aldridge and Eaton won two medals on the Junior Grand Prix to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final.  Their claim to fame all season has been their River Dance Free Dance.  Their Short Dance almost kept them from the podium at their first JGP event, but it has steadily improved throughout the season.  They've really improved this season and taken their skating to another level and are one of best junior teams in the world.

Bonacorsi and Mager are the reigning Junior silver medalists and competed at Junior Worlds last season.  They just missed the Junior Grand Prix Final after winning two medals on the Junior Grand Prix.  They have a very fluid style and nice expression on the ice.  They set the highest sectional score this season.

Pogrebinsky and Gudis won the pewter medal as novices last season and didn't get a chance to compete on the Junior Grand Prix, however they won gold at their sectional event with the 2nd highest score overall.  They're also a very young team with several years of Junior eligibility ahead of them and with a good placement here, they'll likely receive Junior Grand Prix assignments next season.

Heritage and Fast finished just behind Pogrebinsky and Gudis at Sectionals and finished 5th at their Junior Grand Prix assignment.  They train in San Jose, so they'll have the home town crowd behind them at this event which gives them a big advantage but can also be added pressure.

Bertsch and Kaplun won gold at their sectional ahead of two teams that competed on the Junior Grand Prix.  They also set the 4th highest Sectionals score.

The Parsons siblings are the reigning Novice Champions and are only in their second season together after previously competing with other partners.  They finished 9th in their Junior Grand Prix debut and have the 5th highest Sectionals score.  They will be competing in the Youth Olympic Games in Austria the week before nationals and will have to fly directly to the event.  It will be a difficult schedule, but they'll be in a competitive mindset and have some additional international feedback.

Also in the hunt are Hawayek and Bramante who won a medal at nationals as novices last season and competed on the Junior Grand Prix and McNamara and Carpenter who competed as juniors at nationals last season but are still not old enough to compete as juniors internationally.

My podium predictions:
Gold: Aldridge/Eaton
Silver: Bonacorsi/Mager
Bronze: Pogrebinsky/Gudis
Pewter: Heritage/Fast

Bios of the competitors: 
Lauri Bonacorsi/Travis Mager: She is 18 and he is 21.  She represents the Peninsula Skating Club and he represents the Ice Works Skating Club.  They finished 11th at Junior Worlds last season.  They won bronze at JGP Italy and silver at JGP Australia.  They are the 2009 Novice Champions, finished 6th as Juniors in 2010 and are the reigning Junior silver medalists.  They won gold at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.    They have the 7th best short dance, 7th best free dance and 6th best total score internationally.

Danielle Gamelin/Alexander Gamelin: They are 18 and represent the Skating Club of New York.  They placed 9th at JGP Latvia.  They finished 9th in Juvenile in 2007, are the 2008 Juvenile bronze medalists, 2009 Intermediate Champions, finished 5th in Novice in 2010, and 7th in Junior in 2011.  They won pewter at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.
 
Lorraine McNamara/Quinn Carpenter: She is 12 and he is 15.  She represents the Peninsula Skating Club and he represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They are the 2008 Juvenile pewter medalists, 2009 Intermediate pewter medalists, finished 6th in Novice in 2010 and 9th in Junior in 2011.  They won bronze at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Rachel Parsons/Michael Parsons: She is 14 and he is 16.  They represent the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They finished 9th at JGP Poland.  They are the reigning Novice Champions.  They won silver at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Amanda Bertsch/Sam Kaplun: She is 18 and he is 21.  She represents the Ann Arbor Figure Skating Club and he represents the All Year Figure Skating Club.  They won gold at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Jenna Dzierzanowski/Vinny Dispenza:  She is 18 and he is 21.  She represents the Birmingham Figure Skating Club and he represents the Panthers Figure Skating Club.  They finished 13th in Juniors in 2011.  They won pewter at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Kaitlin Hawayek/Michael Bramante: She is 15 and he is 19.  She represents the Skating Club of Western New York and he represents the Detroit Skating Club.  They placed 8th at JGP Estonia and 4th at JGP Romania.  They are the reigning Novice bronze medalists.  They won silver at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Jessica Mancini/Tyler Brooks: She is 15 and he is 17.  They represent the Broadmoor Skating Club.  They finished 10th at JGP Poland.  They are the reigning Novice silver medalists.  They won bronze at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Madeline Heritage/Nathaniel Fast: She is 17 and he is 19.  They represent the University Ice Skating Club of San Jose.  They finished 5th at JGP Australia.  They are the 2008 Juvenile Champions, finished 8th in Intermediate in 2009, finished 9th in Novice in 2010 and 8th in Junior in 2011.  They won silver at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Roxette Howe/Mark Jahnke: She is 18 and he is 21.  She represents the All Year Skating Club and he represents the Seattle Skating Club.  They won bronze at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Cassandra Jeandell/Damian Dodge: They are 17 years old.  She represents the University of Delaware and he represents the Peninsula Figure Skating Club.  They finished 7th in Juvenile Dance in 2009 and 10th in Novice in 2011.  They won pewter at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Elliana Pogrebinsky/Ross Gudis: She is 13 and he is 16.  She represents the Peninsula Figure Skating Club and he represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  They are the 2010 Intermediate bronze medalists and the reigning Novice pewter medalists.  They won gold at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Alexandra Aldridge/Daniel Eaton: She is 17 and he is 19.  They represent the Detroit Skating Club.  They won bronze at JGP Latvia and silver at JGP Austria to qualify for the Junior Grand Prix Final where they finished 4th.  They are the 2010 Novice Champions and finished 5th in Juniors in 2011.  They received a bye to nationals by qualifying for the JGPF.  They have the 4th best short dance, free dance and total scores internationally.