Friday, November 5, 2010

Cup of China Initial Thoughts

I have yet to watch any of the short programs from yesterday, but based on the scores here are a few initial thoughts.

Men: Kozuka is a little bit of a surprise in first place, but this is a close contest.  Verner and Mroz seem to have redeemed themselves and are sitting third an fourth, both with shots at medals.  Miner also had a big turnaround from his short program at his last Grand Prix, and sits just three points from the podium in 6th place.  Less than 6 points separate 3rd-8th place and whoever goes clean tomorrow will have a real shot at medaling.  Samuel Contesti did not have a good short program.  He didn't have any falls, so I'll have to watch the program to see where his mistakes came in.  Kozuka received the highest element score while Joubert received the highest program components.

For my podium predictions, I'm fairly on track with Kozuka and Joubert, although I had them in reverse order.  My fantasy picks are currently placed 2, 7 and 11.

Complete results here: http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpchn2010/SEG001.HTM

Ladies: I'm pleasantly surprised to see Nagasu in first place after being injured during the off-season and missing training time.  Suzuki is showing that she is here to stay with a second place finish and Ando is currently in third place.  Geng is a surprise in 4th place, especially considering China's weakness in every discipline but pairs.  I predict the top three finishers will win the medals after the free skate but the order will likely shuffle.  Nagasu received the highest element marks and Ando received the highest program components.

For my podium predictions, all of the skaters I picked are in the top three but are in a different order.  My fantasy picks are currently ranked 3, 7 and 6.

Complete results here: http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpchn2010/SEG003.HTM

Pairs: This is much closer than I expected with 1.04 points separating Pang and Tong from the young team of Sui and Han.  At just 15 and 18, Sui/Han could be a dominant team on the world circuit for the next decade or more.  Yankowskas and Coughlin skated clean for a season's best short program score and were good enough for third place.  The Russians are still in the mix after a fall and Evora and Ladwig could still medal if they skate clean in the free and one of the other teams errs.  Sui and Han had the highest element scores while Pang and Tong had the highest program components. 

For my podium predictions, I'm currently spot on with gold and Sui/Han and the Russians are both in podium position.  My fantasy picks are currently ranked 4, 3 and 7.

Complete results here: http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpchn2010/SEG005.HTM

Dance: The biggest surprise here is the Chinese placing better than the American teams.  The Hubbells received three deductions in their short dance, which is almost unheard of in ice dance.  The Russians had a strong showing here and will likely win their first Grand Prix medal while the French outperformed the Italians and gave themselves a 7 point lead.  Barring any major hiccups in their free skate, they should easily win the Gold here.  Pechelat/Bourzat received the highest element and program component scores.

For my podium predictions, all three of my teams are in the top three with the top two spots flipped.  My fantasy picks are currently ranked 2, 3 and 6.

Complete results here: http://www.isuresults.com/results/gpchn2010/SEG007.HTM 

A live blog of the Pairs Short Program is available at backstagebarbie.blogspot.com.

Thursday, November 4, 2010

Cup of China Dance Preview

This is a fairly weak field in my favorite event.  Nearly half of the teams are making their Grand Prix debut and the Chinese are not know for their ice dance skills and they have three spots here.  None of the top ranked North American teams are competing as well.  For the top of the podium it will be a battle between Pechelat/Bourzat and Faiella/Scali.  I give the edge to the Italians as they really came into their own last season and ended on the podium at Worlds.  With their higher ranked rinkmates retiring it will be interesting to see if they have the drive to continue to push themselves with no one to chase at practice sessions.  The French have lovely programs but seem to always finish slightly behind the Italians.  Bobrova/Soloviev have flown under the radar, continuously finishing just off the podium at their Grand Prixs.  The Hubbells also need a medal here to keep them in the mix at home.  They are the only top five senior US dance team that does not train with Zouva/Shpilband.  As Samuelson and Bates will likely be out all season, there are two spots on the World team up for grabs for the younger teams (who have both already medaled this season on the Grand Prix) and the Hubbells want to contend for one of those spots.

My podium predictions:
Gold: Faiella/Scali
Silver: Pechelat/Bourzat
Bronze: Bobrova/Soloviev

Information on all the teams competing is below.

Kharis Ralph/Asher Hill, CAN: Ralph and Hill placed 6th at the Four Continents Championships.  They won silver medals at both their Junior Grand Prix assignments last season and placed 4th at the Junior Grand Prix Final.  This is their Grand Prix debut.

Xueting Guan/Meng Wang, CHN: They placed 9th at Four Continents.  They placed 8th and 9th at their Junior Grand Prix assignments last season.  This is their Grand Prix debut.

Xintong Huang/Xun Zheng, CHN: They placed 19th at the Olympics and 4th at Four Continents.  They placed 7th and 5th at their two Grand Prix assignments last season.

Xiaoyang Yu/Chen Wang, CHN: They placed 18th at the World Championships and 8th at Four Continents.  They placed 9th and 10th at their two Grand Prix assignments last season.  They placed 9th at the NHK Trophy two weeks ago.

Nathalie Pechelat/Fabian Bourzat, FRA: They placed 7th at the Olympics and 4th at both Worlds and Europeans.  They won silver last season at both their Grand Prix assigments in Paris and Canada and won bronze at the Grand Prix Final. 

Nora Hoffman/Maxim Zavozin, HUN: Hoffman and Zavozin placed 13th at the Olympics and 10th at the World and European Championships.  Zavozin used to compete for USA and won the World Junior title in 2005.  This is their Grand Prix debut. 

Frederica Faiella/Massimo Scali, ITA: Faiella and Scali placed 5th at the Olympics and won bronze at the World Championships and silver at Europeans.  They won silver at their lone Grand Prix, Cup of China, last season. 

Ekaterina Bobrova/Dmitri Soloviev, RUS: They placed 15th at the Olympics, 8th at Worlds and 9th at Europeans.  They are the 2007 World Junior Champions.  They placed 4th at both of their Grand Prix assignments last season. 

Isabella Canuscio/Ian Lorello, USA: They won bronze at both of their Junior Grand Prix assignments last season and placed 6th in the Junior Grand Prix Final.  This is their Grand Prix debut.

Madison Hubbell/Keifer Hubbell, USA: They won bronze at Four Continents.  They finished 8th and 6th at their two Grand Prix assignments last season.

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Cup of China Pairs Preview

This should be an interesting event as several teams are looking to claim their place in the world and at home.  Pang and Tong should easily win Gold at this event and seem to be skating well after a stellar season last year.  They are also a team that tends to improve as the season progresses so it will be interesting to see their scores here.  Sui and Han are a young Chinese team but they are not coached by Bin Yao.  They had an outstanding junior season last year, but have had mixed results this year.  They are capable of landing throw quads.  Having competed in juniors thus far this season, it will be interesting to see how they bring their programs up to the senior level.  Iliushechkina and Maisuradze had a great competition at Skate Canada despite a few mishaps in their free skate.  They are looking to claim a spot amongst the elite Russian pairs teams and move up the ranks at home.  The back to back competitions could negatively effect their performance here.  Evora and Ladwig are coming off a dream season and with Denney and Barrett gone, they are the top pairs team at their rink and should be receiving more attention.  Their lifts are among the best in the world and if they can nail their other elements they have the performance skills to be very competitive.  Yankowskas and Coughlin are another American team that has all the elements to medal but can never seem to put together two clean performances.  Their free program is about his mothers death earlier this year and they really give everything to this program. 

Podium Predictions:
Gold: Pang/Tong
Silver: Iliushechkina/Maisuradze
Bronze: Sui/Han

Information on all the teams competing is below.

Kaleigh Hole/Adam Johnson, CAN: Hole and Johnson placed 10th at the World Junior Championships in their first season together.  They won gold and bronze at their two Junior Grand Prix assignments and placed 5th at the Grand Prix Final.  This is their Grand Prix debut.

Huibo Dong/Yiming Wu, CHN: Dong and Wu placed 17th at the World Championships.  They won bronze at the 2008 World Junior Championships.  They placed 6th at both of their Grand Prix assignments last season and placed 7th last weekend at Skate Canada. 

Qing Pang/Jian Tong, CHN: Pang and Tong won silver at the Olympics (with personal bests in the free skate and total score) and are the reigning World Champions (with a personal best short program).  They also won the World Championships in 2006.  They are three time Four Continents gold medalists and two time silver medalists.  They won both of their Grand Prix assignments last season before winning silver at the Grand Prix Final.  They won gold at their first assignment this season, the NHK Trophy.

Wenjing Sui/Cong Han, CHN: Sui and Han are the reigning World Junior Champions with personal best scores in the short program and total score.  They won both their Junior Grand Prix assignments last season, including the Junior Grand Prix Final.  They placed 2nd and 1st at their assignments this season, again qualifying them for the Final.  This is their Grand Prix debut.

Nicole della Monica/Yannick Kocon, ITA: They placed 12th at the Olympics with personal bests in the short and free programs.  They were 6th at Europeans.  They finished 5th at their Grand Prix debut last season in Moscow.

Lubov Iliushechkina/Nodari Maisuradze, RUS: They are the 2009 World Junior Champions.  They placed 5th at their Grand Prix debut last season in Beijing.  They won Skate Canada last weekend.

Amanda Evora/Mark Ladwig, USA: They placed 10th at the Olympics with personal best scores in the short and free programs and 9th at the World Championships.  They placed 7th and 5th at their Grand Prix assignments last season.

Caitlin Yankowskas/John Coughlin, USA: They placed 4th at the Four Continents Championships with personal best scores in the short and free skate.  They placed 7th at their lone assignment to Skate Canada last season.  They finished 4th at NHK Trophy this season.

Cup of China Ladies Preview

Four of the eleven skaters at Cup of China are making their Grand Prix debut, making this a relatively young group.  In her third year on the Grand Prix circuit, Mirai Nagasu is looking for her first medal.  She has the goods to win, placing 1st in the short at last year's Worlds, but her nerves often get the best of her and cause her to make mistakes in the free.  She also has has problems with under rotation which she has worked to fix and the new rules should help with but she spent a chunk of the off-season off the ice with an injury so it's unclear if she will be in top form here.  Miki Ando should have a good shot at adding to her gold medal collection after a great season last year.  She is coached by Nikolai Morozov who is having great success with his pupils during the Grand Prix thus far.  Akiko Suzuki is also a podium challenger when she is on and had quite the break through season last year.  Alena Leonova won two medals at the Grand Prix last year but had less competitive assignments.  She has also struggled with consistency and is being eclipsed by her countrymate Ksenia Makarova who won silver at Skate Canada.  Amanda Dobbs surprised everyone last season with a 6th place finish at US Nationals in singles and 7th place finish in pairs.  With her pairs partner retiring it will be interesting to see if the renewed focus on her singles leads to a medal here as she has some very lovely elements.

My podium predictions are:
Gold: Miki Ando
Silver: Mirai Nagasu
Bronze: Akiko Suzuki

Information on all of the skaters competing is below.

Diane Szmiett, CAN: Szmiett placed 10th at last year's Four Continents with a personal best score in her short program.  She placed 8th at last year's Cup of China with personal best total scores and free skate scores.  At her first stop on this year's Grand Prix, she placed 12th at Cup of China.

Bingwa Geng, CHN: Geng placed 11th at last year's Cup of China with personal bests in the short and free program.  She placed 18th at the 2009 World Junior Championships.

Quiying Zhu, CHN: Zhu placed 19th at last year's World Junior Championships.  This is her Grand Prix debut.

Miki Ando, JPN: Ando placed 5th at the Olympics and 4th at the World Championships.  She won her Rostelecom and NHK Trophy assignments last season and placed 2nd at the Grand Prix Final.  She is the 2004 World Junior Champion and 2007 World Champion.  She is the only lady to ever land a quadruple jump in competition.

Akiko Suzuki, JPN: Suzuki placed 8th at the Olympics Games with personal best short and free program scores.  She also placed 11th at the World Championships and 2nd at Four Continents.  She won gold at last season's Cup of China and placed 5th at Skate Canada to earn a berth to the Grand Prix Final where she won bronze. 

Min-Jeong Kwak, KOR: Kwak placed 13th in her Olympic debut with personal bests in the free skate and total score and finished 22nd at the World Championships.  She finished 11th at both her Grand Prix assignments last year.  This is her Grand Prix debut.

Alena Leonova, RUS: Leonova placed 9th at her Olympic debut with personal bests in the short program and total score and followed it up with a 13th place finish at Worlds.  She was 7th at the European Championships.  She won bronze at last season's Rostelecom Cup and silver at the NHK Trophy to qualify her for the Grand Prix Final where she placed 6th.

Joshi Helgesson, SWE: Helgesson placed 9th last season at her third World Junior Championships with a personal best in the free skate.  She placed 9th at Skate America and 11th at Skate Canada last season.  Her older sister also competes for Sweden. 

Amanda Dobbs, USA: Dobbs placed 4th at the Four Continents Championships with personal best scores in the short program and free skate.  This is her Grand Prix debut.

Kristine Musademba, USA: Musademba won gold at her first Junior Grand Prix assignment last season before placing 10th at her second assignment.  This is her Grand Prix debut.

Mirai Nagasu, USA: Nagasu placed 4th at her Olympic debut with personal bests in the free skate and total score.  She placed 7th at the World Championships after a personal best short program.  She is the 2007 Grand Prix Final champion, 2007 US Junior Champion and 2008 US Senior Champion.  She won a silver and bronze medal at the World Junior Championships.  She placed 5th at Cup of China and 4th at Skate Canada last season.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Skate Canada Recap

Backstage Barbie and I have been avidly following the figure skating season and discussing our thoughts and feedback.  She's done a wonderful job recaping many of the events at last weekend's Skate Canada.  For her thoughts on the routines you can follow her blog at backstagebarbie.blogspot.com.

I have a few recaps from NHK Trophy that I'll also be posting in the coming days.  I watched a few of the Skate Canada events live and you can see my reactions on my twitter feed at twitter.com/arlewis1.

Cup of China Mens Preview

Brian Joubert is looking to continue the success he saw at last seasons worlds and erase the memory of his disastrous Olympics.  He firmly believes in the quad and when he lands it he scores well, but when it deserts him he can lose the rest of the program.  Takahiko Kozuka has a great coach in Nobuo Sato and a free choreographed by Marina Zueva.  He has the ability to pull off great programs but lacks consistency.  He needs to do well here to make a name for himself back home where he is ranked 3rd (Machida is ranked 4th).  Samuel Contesti has a shot at medaling here, especially if he can go clean.  Tomas Verner is also looking to redeem himself on the world stage but I'm not sure he has the goods to do it anymore.  Sergei Voronov and Ross Miner are also capable of putting together programs that can land them on the podium but consistency has been an issue here as well.  I predict the medals will be:

Gold: Brian Joubert
Silver: Takahiko Kozuka
Bronze: Samuel Contesti

For more information on all the skaters at Cup of China, see below.

Peitong Chen, CHN: It does not appear that he has competed internationally since 2003.

Jinlin Guan, CHN: He is the 2008 World Juniors Bronze Medalist.  He placed 9th at last year's Cup of China in his Grand Prix debut and placed 17th at last year's world championships. 

Jialing Wu, CHN: Wu is the three time national champion.  He placed 8th at last year's Four Continents with personal best short and free skating scores.  He finished 11th at his lone Grand Prix assignment last year (Skate America).  He finished 7th at this season's NHK Trophy.

Tomas Verner, CZE: Verner is coming off a disastrous season.  He lost his national title, placed 10th at Europeans and finished 19th at the Olympics.  He was the silver medalist at Europeans in 2007 and won the title in 2008.  Last season on the Grand Prix, he finished 5th at Skate America, 2nd at Trophee Eric Bompard and 6th at the Grand Prix Final.

Brian Joubert, FRA: Joubert had a roller coaster season last year.  He won bronze at Europeans but his 16th place showing at the Olympics led to a tryout before the French Skating Federation would allow him to compete at Worlds.  He rebounded with a bronze medal at Worlds.  He is the 2004, 2007 and 2009 European champion and has medaled at Europeans every year since 2004.  He has won one gold medal at Worlds, two silvers and two bronzes.  Last season on the Grand Priz, he finished 4th at Trophy Eric Bompard and 1st at NHK before withdrawing from the Grand Prix Final.  He switched coaches after last season and seems eager to redeem himself on the world stage.

Peter Liebers, GER: Liebers finished 25th at last seasons World Championships.  His lone Grand Prix stop last season was Trophy Eric Bompard where he finished 10th.  He has competed in two international B events this season coming in 3rd and 4th.

Samuel Contesti, ITA: Contesti placed 7th at Worlds with personal best scores in the Short and Free programs.  He also placed 18th at the Olympics and 5th at Europeans.  He won a silver at Europeans in 2009.  His 2009 Grand Prix Season included a 4th place finish at Cup of China and 5th at Skate Canada. 

Takahiko Kozuka, JPN: Kozuka placed 8th at the Olympics and 10th at the World Championships.  He is the 2006 World Junior Champion and the 2009 Four Continents bronze medalist.  His 2009 Grand Prix season included a silver medal at Rostelecom Cup and a 7th place finish at NHK Trophy. 

Tatsuki Machida, JPN: Machida finished 2nd at last year's Four Continents with personal best scores in the Short and Free.  This will be his Grand Prix debut.  He won his international B assignment earlier this season. 

Sergei Voronov, RUS: Voronov finished 14th at both Europeans and Worlds last year.  He finished 6th at last seasons Trophee Eric Bompard and followed up with a bronze medal at the Cup of China.  He also set personal bests for his short program and total score at Cup of China last season.  He switched coaches in the offseason.

Ross Miner, USA: Miner is the 2009 national junior champion and placed 10th at the World Junior Championships.  He won a bronze medal at last years Junior Grand Prix Final.  He finished 9th at his Grand Prix debut earlier this season at NHK Trophy with personal bests in the short and free programs.

Brandon Mroz, USA: Mroz finished 4th at Four Continents last season.  He finished 7th at Rostelecom Cup and 8th at Skate America last season.

Cup of China Fantasy Picks

Here are my US Figure Skating picks for Cup of China:

Ladies
A) Miki Ando, JPN     B) Amanda Dobbs, USA     C) Joshi Helgesson, SWE

Mens
A) Brian Joubert, FRA     B) Samuel Contesti, ITA     C) Jialiang Wu, CHN

Pairs
A) Iliushechkina/Maisuradze, RUS     B) Yankowskas/Coughlin, USA      C) Dong/Wu, CHN

Ice Dance
A) Faiella/Scali, ITA     B) Bobrova/Soloviev, RUS     C) Ralph/Hill, CAN

I am currently ranked 91st after two Grand Prix events.