U.S. Nationals Novice Ladies Preview

Karen Chen blew the field away at both of her qualifying events cruising to two gold medals.  She already has a national title under her belt from last season and is entering this event as the favorite.  She has the two top scores of the qualifying season and could cruise to a victory of 10 points or more here at nationals if she can keep up the same level.  She also showed a slight improvement between events and her scores were consistent which is extremely important at this level.  She is also one of the youngest ladies in this event at only 12 years old.  


Amber Glenn and Avery Kurtz flip flopped between events winning the silver and gold medals in their regional and sectional events.  Glenn beat Kurtz by 13 points at regionals and Kurtz beat Glenn by 9 points at sectionals.  Whoever skates clean will likely take the silver medal but I think they'll both wind up on the medal stand.


Madison Vinci and Brianna Laxson are training mates who also switched results throughout qualifying.  Laxson had a less than 5 point lead over Vinci at regionals but Vinci took a 1 point lead over Laxson at sectionals.  These two should be very close again and will likely be trying to hold off Selena Zhao for the final spot on the podium.


My medal predictions:
Gold: Karen Chen
Silver: Amber Glenn
Bronze: Avery Kurtz
Pewter: Brianna Laxson


Bios of the competitors:
Brianna Laxson: She is 12 years old and represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  She finished 20th in Juvenile Girls in 2010 and is the 2011 Intermediate Ladies pewter medalist.  She won gold at South Atlantic Regionals and silver at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the 9th best short program, 4th best free skate and 5th best total scores.


Olivia Serafini: She is 14 years old and represents the Albany Figure Skating Club.  She won gold at North Atlantic Regionals and bronze at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Morgan Sewall: She is 14 years old and represents the North Atlantic Figure Skating Club.  She won gold at New England Regionals and pewter at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.

Madison Vinci: She is 15 years old and represents the Washington Figure Skating Club.  She is the 2011 bronze medalist in Intermediate Ladies.  She won silver at South Atlantic Regionals and gold at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the 4th best short program, 8th best free skate and 7th best total score.

Madison DeLuca: She is 15 years old and represents the Arctic Figure Skating Club.  She finished 9th in Intermediate Ladies in 2010.  She won gold at Eastern Great Lakes Regionals and pewter at Midwestern Regionals to qualify for nationals.  


Amber Glenn: She is 12 years old and represents the Dallas Figure Skating Club.  She finished 10th in Intermediate Ladies in 2011 and 12th in Juvenile Girls in 2009.  She won gold at Southwest Regionals and silver at Midwest Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the 7th best short program score and 3rd best free skate and total score.


Avery Kurtz: She is 14 years old and represents the Broadmoor Skating Club.  She is the 2010 Intermediate Ladies pewter medalist.   She won silver at Southwest Regionals and gold at Midwest Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the 3rd best short program, 2nd best free skate and 2nd best total score.


Bradie Tennell: She is 13 years old and represents the Wagon Wheel Figure Skating Club.  She finished 10th in Juvenile Girls in 2010 and 15th in Intermediate Ladies in 2011.  She won bronze at Upper Great Lakes Regionals and Midwest Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the 9th best free skate score.

Karen Chen: She is 12 years old and represents the Peninsula Skating Club.  She won pewter in Juvenile Girls in 2010 and is the 2011 Intermediate Ladies Champion.  She won gold at Central Pacific Regionals and Pacific Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the best short program, free skate and total scores.


Amanda Gelb: She represents the Los Angeles Figure Skating Club.  She won gold at Southwest Pacific Regionals and bronze at Pacific Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the 7th best short program, 8th best free skate and 7th best total score.


Dyllan McIntee: She is 13 years old and represents the Skating Club of Phoenix.  She is the 2010 Juvenile Girls Champion.  She finished 11th in Intermediate Ladies in 2011.  She won pewter at Southwest Pacific Regionals and silver at Pacific Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the 6th best free skate and total score.


Selena Zhao: She represents the Highland Skating Club.  She won gold at Northwest Pacific Regionals and pewter at Pacific Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  She has the 8th best short program, 5th best free skate and 4th best total score.

Breaking Down the Elements: Novice Ladies Free Skate

Novice Ladies have 3 minutes to complete elements in three categories in their free skate.

Jumps

• Maximum 6 jumping passes in the program
• 1 must be an Axel-type jump
• Maximum of 3 combinations or sequences
• Combinations are limited to 2 jumps, but one 3-jump combination is permitted. 
• Number of jumps in a sequence is not limited
  
• No more than 2 jumps that are 2 1/2 or 3 rotations may be repeated.  If 2 1/2 or triple jump repeated, must be in combination or sequence
• No more than 2 of the same time of double or triple may be attempted
  

Spins

• There are a maximum of 3 spins
• 1 must have a flying entry with no change of position or foot
• 1 must be a spin combination with or without a change of foot
• 3rd spin is option of skater
• Minimum 6 revolutions, 10 for the combination spin, minimum 2 revolutions in each position
• All spins may change feet and start with a fly (except the fixed flying entry with no change of foot)
• Spins must be of a different nature

Step Sequences

• One leveled step sequence
• Straight line, circular or serpentine
  

Breaking Down the Elements: Novice Ladies Short Program

The novice ladies short program consists of 6 elements that must be performed in 2:30 maximum time.

1. Axel or double axel

2. Double or triple jump immediately preceded by connecting steps.  May not repeat double axel.

3. Jump combination, double/double or double/triple, may not repeat either Axel jump performed or solo jump

5. Layback or sideways leaning spin, no change of foot, may not have flying entry, minimum 6 revolutions

6. Spin combination, with only 1 change of foot and minimum of 1 change of position.  2 revolutions required for position to count.  No flying entry, minimum 5 revolutions each foot

7. Step sequence, Straight line, circular or serpentine

U.S. Nationals Novice Men's Preview

Vincent Zhou enters this event as the favorite after winning both of his qualifying events this season by comfortable margins.  At just 11 years old, he already has one national championship to his name, winning the intermediate level last season.  He has double axels and lots of triple jumps and while not everything is the prettiest, he is fairly consistent and sticks his landings.  He has the top two scores of the season by a comfortable margin and should win this event solidly.


Here's the video of his winning performance at Junior Nationals last season.

Kevin Shum finished 2nd behind Zhou at both of his events last season and had consistent scoring between the two events.  He lost points when he completed an illegal triple+triple combination in his short program at Sectionals but that technical prowess could give him an edge if he uses it correctly.  He is also one of two skaters that made it to nationals at the novice level last season and that experience should allow him to better handle the pressure of skating in a larger event with bigger crowds.


The rest of the skaters are fairly evenly matched, and I think the whole event will be close, especially the race for the podium.  Of the rest of the field, Tony Lu had the highest scores and was the most consistent between events so I give him a slight edge.


My podium predictions:
Gold: Vincent Zhou
Silver: Kevin Shum
Bronze: Tony Lu
Pewter: Spencer Howe


Bios of the competitors:
Tony Lu: He is 12 years old and competes on behalf of the Skating Club of Wilmington.  He is the 2010 Juvenile Boys Silver Medalist and finished 18th in Juvenile Boys in 2009.  He won gold at South Atlantic Regionals and Eastern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals.  He has the 7th best short program, 3rd best free skate and 4th best total score.


Jimmy Ma: He placed 14th in Intermediate Men in 2010.  He won silver at North Atlantic Regionals and Eastern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals.  He has the 2nd best short program, 8th best free skate and 5th best total score.


Oleksiy Melnyk: He is 14 years old and competes on behalf of the Washington Figure Skating Club.  He is the 2011 Intermediate Men's Silver Medalist and finished 7th in Juvenile Boys in 2009.  He won silver at South Atlantic Regionals and the pewter medal at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals.  He has the 9th best short program and 10th best total score.


James Schetelich: He is 15 years old and represents the Skating Club of New York.  He placed 18th in Intermediate Men in 2010 and is the 2009 Juvenile Boys pewter medalist.  He won gold at North Atlantic Regionals and the bronze medal at Eastern Sectionals to qualify for Nationals.  He has the 3rd best short program and 6th best free skate and total scores.

Chase Belmontes: He represents the Broadmoor Skating Club.  He placed 20th in Intermediate Men in 2010.  He won gold at Southwestern Regionals and silver at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 10th best short program, 7th best free skate and 8th best total score.


Brian Krentz: He represents the Skokie Valley Skating Club.  He placed 5th in Intermediate Pairs in 2011.  He won gold Upper Great Lakes Regionals and Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 4th best free skate and 7th best total score.


Kyle Shropshire: He represents the Wagon Wheel Skating Club.  He placed 13th in Intermediate Men in 2010.  He won the bronze medal at Upper Great Lakes Regionals and pewter medal at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 9th best free skate and 10th best total score.


Nicholas Vrdoljak: He is 15 years old and competes for Northern Ice Skating Club.  He is the 2009 Juvenile Boys Champion and placed 5th in Intermediate Men in 2010 and 14th in Juvenile Boys in 2008.  He won the silver medal at Upper Great Lakes Sectionals and bronze at Midwestern Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 6th best short program and 9th best total score.

Spencer Howe: He is 15 years old and represents the Los Angeles Figure Skating Club.  He is the 2009 Juvenile Boys silver medalist, placed 16th in Intermediate Men in 2010 and 6th in Novice Men in 2011.  He won bronze at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 5th best short program and free skate and 3rd best total score.


Wilbur Ji: He represents the Skating Club of San Francisco.  He won bronze at Central Pacific Regionals and the pewter medal at Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for Nationals.  


Kevin Shum: He represents the St. Moritz Ice Skating Club.  He is the 2008 Juvenile Boys Champion, placed 7th in Intermediate Men in 2009, 6th in Intermediate Men in 2010 and 9th in Novice Men in 2011.  He won silver at Central Pacific Regionals and Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals.  He has the 4th best short program and 2nd best free skate and total score.


Vincent Zhou: He is 11 years old and represents the Peninsula Skating Club.  He placed 5th in Juvenile Boys in 2010 and is the reigning Intermediate Men's Champion.  He won gold at Central Pacific Regionals and Pacific Coast Sectionals to qualify for nationals. He has the best short program, free skate and total score.

Breaking Down the Elements: Novice Men's Free Skate

Novice Men must complete elements in three categories during the three and a half minutes allotted for their free skate.

Jumps

• A maximum of 7 jumping passes can be completed
• 1 must be an Axel-type jump
• Maximum 3 combinations or sequences
• Combinations are limited to 2 jumps, but one 3-jump combo is permitted
• Number of jumps in sequence is not limited
• One double axel and two different triple jumps may be repeated.  If double axel or triple jumps repeated, must be in combo or sequence.
• No more than two of the same type of double or triple may be attempted.

Spins

• Maximum of three spins
• Spins must be of a different nature
• 1 spin must have a flying entry with no change of foot or position
• 1 spin must be a combination with or without change of foot
• 3rd spin is option of skater
• Minimum 6 revolutions, 10 for the combination spin, minimum of 2 revolutions in each position
• All spins may change feet and start with a flying entry (except for the proscribed flying entry with no change of foot)

Step Sequences

• One leveled step sequence
• Straight line, circular or serpentine

Breaking Down the Elements: Novice Men's Short Program

For the 2011-2012 season, novice men have 6 required elements in their short program to be performed in 2 minutes and 30 seconds.  The elements can be performed in any order.

1. Double or triple jump, immediately preceded by connecting steps or other free skating movements.  May not repeat double axel jump

2. Jump combination, double/double or triple/double.  May not repeat either Axel jump performed or solo jump

3. Axel or double axel

4. Camel or Sit spin, with only one change of foot, no change of position, no flying entry, minimum 5 revolutions each foot.

5. Spin Combination, with only 1 change of foot and minimum 1 change of position.  2 revolutions required for position to count.  No flying entry, minimum 5 revolutions each foot.

6. Step Sequence, straight line, circular or serpentine

Russian Nationals Ladies Results

Pl.	Name	Nation	TSS =	TES +		PCS +	SS	TR	PE	CH	IN	Deduction -	StN.
A	Adelina Sotnikova	MOS	68.65	35.70		32.95	8.14	8.00	8.32	8.36	8.36	0.00	# 12
2	Ksenia Makarova	SPB	64.30	30.90		33.40	8.36	4.8	8.43	8.50	8.43	0.00	# 14
3	Julia Lipnitskii	MOS	63.11	33.93		29.18	7.32	7.7	7.39	7.36	7.32	0.00	# 7
4	Sophia BIRYUKOVA	MOS	60.95	31.36		29.59	7.43	7.14	7.46	7.54	7.43	0.00	# 5
5	Alena Leonova	SPB	59.95	27.60		32.35	4.8	7.75	7.8	8.29	8.29	0.00	# 2
6	Elena Radionova	MOS	59.10	33.07		3.26	6.46	6.21	6.61	6.57	6.68	0.00	# 4
7	Elizabeth Tuktamysheva	SPB	58.32	28.92		30.40	7.61	7.29	7.68	7.71	7.71	1.00	# 8
8	Pauline Korobeinikova	MOS	57.64	29.30		28.34	7.25	6.82	7.14	7.14	7.7	0.00	# 10
9	Anna Shershakov	MOS	55.29	29.16		26.13	6.64	6.21	6.64	6.64	6.54	0.00	# 18
10	Maria Artemiev	SPB	55.25	8.30		26.17	6.79	6.43	6.50	6.50	6.50	1.00	# 9
11	Evgenia Medvedeva	MOS	53.21	30.21		23.00	5.71	5.50	5.89	5.86	5.79	0.00	# 11
12	Alexander Deev	MOS	53.21	28.53		24.68	6.21	5.96	6.25	6.25	6.18	0.00	# 16
13	Eugene GERASIMOVA	SPB	52.58	27.78		24.80	6.29	5.89	6.32	6.32	6.18	0.00	# 17
14	Anna Ovcharovo	MOS	52.51	9.26		26.42	6.68	6.39	6.57	6.64	6.75	0.00	# 15
15	Pauline AGAFONOVA	SPB	50.30	25.64		25.66	6.57	6.21	6.46	6.46	6.36	1.00	# 1
16	Sophia MISHIN	MOS	46.55	25.46		9.22	5.71	5.36	5.46	5.54	5.54	1.00	# 13
17	Pauline Shelepen	MOS	45.44	21.29		26.15	6.82	6.36	6.36	6.68	6.46	2.00	# 6
18	Maria Stavitsky	SPB	43.10	21.74		22.36	5.71	5.43	5.46	5.71	5.64	1.00	# 3

Pl.	Name	Nation	TSS  =	TES  +		PCS  +	SS	TR	PE	CH	IN	Deduction  -	StN.
A	Julia Lipnitskii	MOS	128.54	68.65		59.89	7.50	7.25	7.68	7.54	7.46	0.00	# 16
2	Adelina Sotnikova	MOS	125.06	59.05		66.01	8.29	4.8	8.11	8.43	8.39	0.00	# 17
3	Alena Leonova	SPB	118.20	52.87		65.33	8.18	7.89	8.11	8.36	8.29	0.00	# 15
4	Elizabeth Tuktamysheva	SPB	116.08	57.36		60.72	7.64	7.39	7.54	7.75	7.64	2.00	# 9
5	Elena Radionova	MOS	115.71	63.68		53.03	6.68	6.32	6.75	6.71	6.68	1.00	# 13
6	Ksenia Makarova	SPB	111.19	47.04		65.15	8.21	7.93	8.18	8.21	8.18	1.00	# 18
7	Pauline Shelepen	MOS	109.34	56.80		53.54	6.86	6.46	6.71	6.79	6.64	1.00	# 4
8	Evgenia Medvedeva	MOS	108.53	60.96		48.57	6.4	5.79	6.21	7.6	6.25	1.00	# 8
9	Pauline Korobeinikova	MOS	107.93	52.01		55.92	7.14	6.79	6.89	7.14	7.00	0.00	# 11
10	Eugene GERASIMOVA	SPB	99.44	52.67		47.77	6.11	5.71	6.00	7.6	5.96	1.00	# 6
11	Pauline AGAFONOVA	SPB	97.84	48.31		49.53	6.36	6.00	6.14	6.32	6.14	0.00	# 1
12	Sophia MISHIN	MOS	97.19	50.75		46.44	5.93	5.57	5.89	5.82	5.82	0.00	# 2
13	Anna Shershakov	MOS	96.82	47.68		51.14	6.57	6.18	6.29	6.54	6.39	2.00	# 7
14	Sophia BIRYUKOVA	MOS	95.16	42.34		55.82	7.21	6.89	6.61	7.21	6.96	3.00	# 14
15	Maria Artemiev	SPB	93.19	42.67		52.52	6.75	6.39	6.36	6.71	6.61	2.00	# 12
16	Alexander Deev	MOS	91.29	43.32		48.97	6.29	6.00	7.6	6.11	6.14	1.00	# 10
17	Maria Stavitsky	SPB	87.62	43.69		44.93	5.71	5.43	5.61	5.71	5.61	1.00	# 5
18	Anna Ovcharovo	MOS	82.16	33.10		50.06	6.32	6.4	6.11	6.43	6.39	1.00	# 3

FPl.	Name	Nation	Points	KP	PP
A	Adelina Sotnikova	MOS	193.71	A	2
2	Julia Lipnitskii	MOS	191.65	3	A
3	Alena Leonova	SPB	178.15	5	3
4	Ksenia Makarova	SPB	175.49	2	6
5	Elena Radionova	MOS	174.81	6	5
6	Elizabeth Tuktamysheva	SPB	174.40	7	4
7	Pauline Korobeinikova	MOS	165.57	8	9
8	Evgenia Medvedeva	MOS	161.74	11	8
9	Sophia BIRYUKOVA	MOS	156.11	4	14
10	Pauline Shelepen	MOS	154.78	17	7
11	Anna Shershakov	MOS	152.11	9	13
12	Eugene GERASIMOVA	SPB	152.02	13	10
13	Maria Artemiev	SPB	148.44	10	15
14	Pauline AGAFONOVA	SPB	148.14	15	11
15	Alexander Deev	MOS	144.50	12	16
16	Sophia MISHIN	MOS	143.74	16	12
17	Anna Ovcharovo	MOS	134.67	14	18
18	Maria Stavitsky	SPB	130.72	18	17